New version of Toledo Talk

Toledo's population "dips" below 300,000 - "For the first time in more than 60 years, Toledo's population has dipped to 285,937, according to an estimate in the 2005 American Community Survey announced yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau. Even allowing for the survey's stated margin of error, the city's population would still not exceed 292,000."

Those numbers don't sound right. From a June Toledo Talk thread that pointed to a Blade story about population:

"Toledo dropped in population from 304,734 in July, 2004, to 301,285 by July, 2005, according to the [U.S. Census Bureau]. ... a 1.1 percent drop that was enough to make it the 13th-fastest shrinking city in the nation."

If my math is correct, and if I'm understanding this correctly, Toledo's population declined 5.1% since July 2005.

From that June Blade story, Norfolk, VA had the biggest population decline in the country from July 2004 to July 2005, which was a drop of 2.3%. Toledo's decline in the past year more than doubles the biggest loser of the previous year.

But this latest story points to a 2005 American Community Survey, which seems like it's only estimating the population through 2005. That would mean, Toledo went from 301,285 in July, 2005 to 285,937 by January 1 of this year. I think something is slightly amiss. One of these sets of numbers is way off.


Anyway, more from the August 16 Blade story:

"Toledo suffered a loss of 27,682 people or 8.8 percent between 2005 and the last official Census Bureau count in 2000, when the city's population was recorded at 313,619, the survey reported."

"Lucas County, which includes Toledo, has had a 1.5 percent population decline since 2000, from 455,054 residents to 448,229. During that same time, every bordering county in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan had population gains."

"The region's biggest population gains continue to be in Monroe County, which has had a 5.5 percent increase in residents since 2000."

Wood County gained 2.4% since 2000.

Some comments by public officials:

Brian Schwartz, spokesman for Toledo Mayor Carty Finkbeiner, said:

"We are disappointed to see the drop in the city's population, but we are not the only ones. If you look at the numbers, you can see we are very close to passing Cincinnati in size."

What? The Blade just reported: "... every bordering county in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan had population gains." Who cares about Cincinnati or the other cities? That's their problem.


More gems from today's story:

"Claiming Toledo and Lucas County are in the process of an economic recovery that will lure people back, Mr. Schwartz and county Commissioner Pete Gerken pointed to the proposed Marina District and arena projects as catalysts for turnaround. "We have now hit the bottom and things are going to start changing," Mr. Gerken said."

Toledo's population had been declining for over 30 years. When the city shows a few years of population gains, then we can look back at 2006 and say Toledo hit bottom.

"At least one official contacted by The Blade, Toledo Council President Rob Ludeman, questioned the accuracy of the Census estimate for the city. As a Realtor, he said he thinks he would have noticed an exodus of more than 27,000 people from the city since 2000. "That would have left gaping holes in parts of the city and I haven't seen it," Mr. Ludeman said. "I'd have to see their data and how they came up with that. It just doesn't seem right to me." "


"[T]he economic prosperity that might have attracted people into the city at its population peak 35 years ago is nothing but a memory, said Fred Folger, a Toledo historian who has studied the city's economic and population trends. "It seems to me to be fairly obvious. We have lost a number of our major companies in Toledo in the last few decades, and the people went with them," he said. "We lost many of the manufacturers that were the base of good, solid jobs for many people." Mr. Folger said the growth of suburbs and the recent phenomenon of "exurbs" expanding beyond suburbs into rural areas "happened at the expense of the core city and it is happening in other cities in Ohio and across the country."


Toledo Blade images:





posted by jr to news at 9:46 A.M. EST     (16 Comments)

Comments ...

Remember this is an estimation of the 2005 American Community Survey, it is not the hardcore counts that are usually conducted on a decade basis (1990, 2000, 2010) with the Census Bureau. It does not give you an actual head counts of population; I do agree that there is a decline among many urban cities but not to that extent. I find it hard to believe that Cincinnati is about to be #4 as we go to #3 highest populated city in the state of Ohio. The numbers will bounce back to reality when the 2010 Census counts start rolling in. I agree with Rob Ludeman in regards to the real estate factor that he was surprised to see an "estimation" of a survey population count which undermined his count of real estate figures and transactions. Just don't believe the numbers that American Community Survey produce because the Census decade counts are the ones that matters. To my best guess estimation I think Toledo will be hovering 301,000 by 2010.
posted by HolyHolyToledo at 09:59 A.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

I found this pdf the other day when I was doing some research on employment stats for Toledo. It's a 1997 report written for the Annual Conference of the Urban Affairs Association.

What might be of interest to this discussion starts on page 5:

The movement of population from the City of Toledo to its suburbs is producing a serious population loss for the City of Toledo and increasing racial segregation in the Toledo metropolitan area. From 354,635 in 1980, the Toledo population fell to 332,943 in 1990, a loss of more than 22,000 people in 10 years.

The population changes are leading to increased segregation of the area by race and income. Between 1980 and 1990, Toledo’s white population dropped by 27,681 while the black population increased by 3,848. In the remainder of Lucas County, the white population increased by 10,972, while the black population increased by 707.

Per capita income provides an indication of the level of economic and fiscal health in a region. Toledo has been experiencing a significant decline in the level of economic health relative to its suburbs. In 1970, the per capita income in Toledo was 96 percent of the suburban level. This central-city/suburban per capita income ratio dropped to 90 percent in 1980, and 82 percent in 1987. In 1990, the Toledo per capita income of $11,894 was only 74 percent of the $16,063 per capita income for the suburbs.

This to me shows how long this has been an issue. No matter what the final numbers end up being, what is obvious is that if something isn't actually done the population will continue to decrease.
posted by psyche777 at 01:09 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

At least we're not as bad as Dayton, Cleveland, and Cincy. Even according to the decade census counts Toledo proper is expected to be larger than Cincinnati proper, and according to this estimate it may have already happened since there is a little lag time for the numbers to come out. I do question the validity of these estimates, however. Like Rob Ludeman said, it seems like the real estate market would have taken note of 27,000 people leaving in a matter of 5 years. That's a lot of houses going up for sale in a very short amount of time.

I also found it interesting that Ohio's "posterchild" city of Columbus is losing population as well. It reiterates the fact that there are state-wide problems that must be solved for Ohio to recapture the economic and population levels it once held.
posted by HeyHey at 01:53 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

Like Rob Ludeman said, it seems like the real estate market would have taken note of 27,000 people leaving in a matter of 5 years.

Not nessisarily, you have to take into account renters. Also the fact that people move out of the city but still keep their homes to rent out. However i do agree 5400 people a year is a bit much.
posted by tm at 02:11 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

Wow. That's amazing. I knew that TPS had lost a good portion of the students, but that number is astounding.

If the surrounding counties are gaining while we lose - is it possible people are moving out to the other areas just to avoid the declining property values, higher income and property taxes here?
posted by katie82640 at 03:29 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

I was just out running errands and caught a piece of kevin milliken's show in re this topic.

Carty says he doesnt believe these numbers about toledo's population. Ok...

Carty also says he's encouraged that we might pass Cincinnati in population, because he'd like to get some of that state funding that Cinci gets...

Is anybody catching this broken record here??

As usual, Carty doesnt believe the numbers he doesnt like, and builds up the numbers he does - EVEN WHEN THEY SOME FROM THE SAME REPORT!!!

If he thinks Toledo's numbers are wrong, how can he believe anything about Cinci's???
posted by billy at 06:29 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

It doesn't matter if these numbers are estimates. The U.S. Census Bureau needs to provide an explanation for why their estimates vary by such a large margin.

July 2005 Toledo estimate : 301,285

2005 Toledo estimate : 285,937

At the U.S. Census Bureau's http://factfinder.census.gov website, you can access previous American Community Survey population estimates.

So we know the 2005 ACS population estimate for Toledo is: 285,937

The 2004 ACS population estimate for Toledo was: 305,652

The 2003 ACS population estimate for Toledo was: 298,242

So I would say junk this 285K Toledo number provided by this government agency. Like HHT said, wait until the 2010 census is taken.
posted by jr at 07:06 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

From Toledo's Wikipedia entry, population numbers based upon the census survey:

1950 : 303,616
1960 : 318,003
1970 : 383,818
1980 : 354,635 -7.6%
1990 : 332,943 -6.1%
2000 : 313,619 -5.8%

If Toledo's population declines at the 5.8% rate for this decade, the 2010 census for Toledo will be 295,429.
posted by jr at 07:36 P.M. EST on Wed Aug 16, 2006     #

August 17, 2006 Blade story:

"City Councilman Frank Szollosi blamed the population decrease on Toledo's tax burden. He called on the mayor and Council President Rob Ludeman to support his plan to submit future increases in the special assessments budget to city voters."


"Mayor Carty Finkbeiner alternated between casting doubt on the accuracy of a new U.S. Census estimate that lowers Toledo's population and shrugging it off as unimportant. [Carty] said that quality of life, not population, is what makes a city great."

No kidding, Mayor. That's why people move into the small communities surrounding Toledo.

Carty dismissed Toledo's 30+ year population decline by saying:

"If that were the case, Detroit would be a better city to live in than Toledo."

Officials like to ignore the issue by mentioning the problems of other cities in order to make Toledo look better.

Here's the issue these public boobs need to be considering:

"... every bordering county in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan had population gains."


Back to today's Blade story and Carty's "alternating" that billy pointed out yesterday.

"Mr. Finkbeiner, who unsuccessfully sued the U.S. Census Bureau in 2000, criticized the bureau's procedures and ridiculed the mid-decade estimate as unscientific. But he pointed out that the numbers say Toledo is less than 2,000 people away from overtaking Cincinnati as Ohio's third largest city."


And now Carty spewing crap:

"[Carty] said the major reasons for the decline are perceptions that schools are better and crime lower in the suburbs. He contended that neither is as true as people believe."

I assume the Mayor's office will soon be producing detailed crime stats on a per capita basis for Toledo and all the communities in the surrounding area to back up this latest claim by the Czarty.


In the June 28, 2006 issue of The Soujourner's Truth, former Mayor Jack Ford gave reasons why people are moving from Toledo into the surrounding communities. Ford said:

"Current office holders say it is the loss of jobs and poor schools that drive folks away from Toledo. I disagree. I say the main culprit is H2O. These [water] agreements allowed areas to take virgin farmland, water it and transform it into retail and residential centers. Since someone working in downtown Toledo can opt to move to Bedford Township and still have only a 15-minute communte down Jackman Rd, why not? Toledo will die a slow death unless we figure out how to change the outline of [our] government structure."

As to why Toledoans move to a suburb, Ford said about the burb:

"It's greener, it appears newer and we think it is safer. And, for those of us who really are honest, it's whiter!"


Both Ford and Carty don't believe the smaller communities are as safe as people think. So where are the stats to back up this claim?

Here's one stat for Lucas County that disproves what Carty and Jack are saying: registered sex offenders. The June 2006 file of Lucas County registered sex offenders contained 740 entries with 669 listing a Toledo address. 90% of the county's registered sex offenders reside in Toledo, but Toledo has around 68% of Lucas County's population.
posted by jr at 07:55 A.M. EST on Thu Aug 17, 2006     #

City-wide ban on sex offenders? Then they all have to move to the burbs and all the 'good' people will move back to within the Toledo city limits.
posted by fequalsma73 at 08:26 A.M. EST on Thu Aug 17, 2006     #

Maybe they all moved far enough to the north, (just over the Mich. line) to get away from Toledo Edison. My electric bill for last month was $242.00.
posted by JeepMaker at 12:33 P.M. EST on Thu Aug 17, 2006     #

According to the article in Friday's Blade these numbers are being misinterpreted. Evidently this survey excludes several groups of people (college students, prisoners, etc), and is used more for demographic purposes. The correct number still is 301,XXX.
posted by HeyHey at 11:01 A.M. EST on Sat Aug 19, 2006     #

Regardless of the actual number of residents, the blame was placed elsewhere...schools, crime, water, 'whiteness' and not with the politicians making the decisions that cause people and businesses to want to leave.
posted by MaggieThurber at 01:31 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 19, 2006     #

What's new? Toledo area politians using negative news about other cities to deflect negativity about Toledo? I mean come on. Brian Schwartz is the press guy for Carty now...before that the port. How many times when the airport was (is) doing really badly, did it get covered up with deflecting information? It actually still takes place. The entire Toledo area is filled with the same morons in political office that will never take responsibility and address issues head on. Unfortunately this will never end since voters continue to recycle the same group of idiots into new jobs when they get term limited.
posted by JustaSooner at 11:51 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 19, 2006     #

Whoever wrote the article is a boob. The Community Survey only counts households, or about 97% of the population, excluding folks who live in dorms, prisons, and other institutions. Toledo is losing people, but not that many people.
posted by paddington at 07:01 P.M. EST on Sun Aug 20, 2006     #

From Friday's Gongwer's report:

CENSUS REPORT SHOWS OHIOANS TEND TO STAY PUT

Ohio has more of its native-born citizens living in state than most other states in the country, according to data the U.S. Census Bureau released this week.

Nearly 78% of native-born Ohioans live in Ohio, according to the 2005 American Community Survey. Only New York, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have a higher percent of their native-born population residing in their state. The national average is 67.5%.

On the other hand, Ohio appears to be one of the states with lowest percentage of its population of coming from other states.

Steve Kelley, senior economist with the Department of Development, cautioned that making comparisons and analyzing trends with the data was relatively unreliable because this is the first year the survey used large samples.

“Next year it could be completely different,” he said, adding the data would become more reliable each year.

The survey is designed to offer communities information to annually track changes on a range of social, economic, housing, and demographic issues, rather than having to wait until 2012, the Census Bureau said. The ACS is slated to replace the decennial census “long form” in 2010.

“The data are vital for the planning, implementation, and evaluation of policies ranging from building new schools and roads to establishing initiatives that drive economic development,” Census Bureau Director Louis Kincannon said in a statement.

The survey includes detailed information on race, age, education, marital status, veterans, disability, and citizenship for communities of 65,000 or more.

___________________________________________
This supports the Board of Regents study which showed that Ohio's problem is more of the IMPORTING of students rather than the brain drain of graduates leaving. Note - for OHIO, not the Toledo area.

Another interesting point is that this survey is slated to replace the long form....
posted by MaggieThurber at 09:56 A.M. EST on Mon Aug 21, 2006     #

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