Finkbeiner 40%
Ludeman 27%
Ford 17%
Wilkowski 10%
All other split 6%
posted by ajeepthing at 06:30 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 13, 2005 #
Don't know the percentages, but I say the top two will be Carty & JFo. I thought for a while it might be Carty & Wilkowski(due to ethnicity), but i remembered my old adage-never underestmate the power of incumbency (or 90% of black voters-Carty is the only honky who will eat into that bloc). And the rag will do everything they can to get Ford re-elected, even though he's totally worthless, due to his following the Puppet Master's instructions on the smoker assault, plus he's black, and the paper is nothing if not PC. Sorry if my statements offend some, but I call 'em as I see 'em. And, in case no one ever noticed, I'm NOT PC.
posted by Foolkiller at 06:53 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 13, 2005 #
I listed my prediction wrong on my Post
Correction is:
Finkbeiner 40%
Ford 27%
Ludeman 17%
Wilkowski 10%
Other split 6%
Now I've got it right!
posted by ajeepthing at 07:14 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 13, 2005 #
Finkbeiner 35%
Ford 25%
?
?
?
Voter turnout: 20%
posted by jr at 07:18 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 13, 2005 #
Okay historymike, I’m game:
Finkbeiner - 37%
Wilkowski - 25%
Ford - 21%
Ludeman - 16%
Gozdowski, Covey, Okonski, and all other possible write ins - 01%
My Reasoning:
Finkbeiner: The 4th & 14th Wards LOVE Carty and will blindly (they also have short memories) follow Carty wherever Carty wants to go.
Wilkowski: Keith is energetic, he’s pushing new ideas, and those that are fed up with Carty in the 4th & 14th wards will vote for Keith, (“After all, He IS one of us/them”).
Ford: JFo has the UNION backing and the Minority “advantage” to certain voters (just as Keith The Polish Kid has in the 4th & 14th wards).
Ludeman: (Shhhh, don’t wake him) Rob IS The South End Guy (Carty said it) and that will give Rob some votes in South Toledo, some of the non/anti union votes, and those die hard R’s that would sooner cut off their hands that vote for a Dem.
The Rest: Unendorsed and never held office before candidates usually receive only a token numbers of votes.
Disclaimer:
All bets are off if:
The BAD Carty rears his ugly head before the primary.
-or-
Keith gets Carty’s goat, making Carty publicly “lose it.”
-or-
Rob Ludeman DOES wake up, starts kicking (Carty’s) ass, and taking (Carty’)s names.
(But, don’t bet on it.)
Although that last disclaimer might get Rob through the primaries, I think that whomever Rob ends up running against would likely “cream” him…
posted by Hooda_Thunkit at 08:25 P.M. EST on Sat Aug 13, 2005 #
Carty - between 41-43%
Ludeman - between 19-22%
Ford - not more than 20%
Wilkowski - not more than 17%
other candidates - less than 1%
Reasoning: Carty gets this number just based upon those who love him/hate him. This means that it's a dogfight between the other three.
Ludeman, as a Republican, should be able to count on about 25%, but his performance and the defection of some Republicans to Carty (in the 'love him' group) mean that he'll be fortunate to get to 22%. Also, the Republicans WILL vote for Rob IF they think he's got a chance - otherwise, they'll go to Carty. So, at this point, it's Rob's to lose as the second placer.
Ford's numbers, despite favorable/unfavorable polls, are pretty solid as an incumbent and a minority. He's going to get the staunch Dems who vote based upon their slate cards and the minorities. He's also got the money and the ability to get his voters to the polls, but I still believe he'll finish third.
Wilkowski is flashy and gimmicky, but he's a defector from the A-Team - going up against the endorsed candidate...always a no-no in Dem circles. I put him behind Ludeman and Ford because he's going to have a hard time explaining why he supported Ford up until 3 weeks before he announced his run. Also, he's got no money and he's just Ford's policies with better marketing. People are smarter than that these days. I figure he'll finish a close fourth.
Like Hooda-Thunkit, I reserve the right to revise these numbers as the primary date nears.
posted by intrepid at 09:07 A.M. EST on Sun Aug 14, 2005 #
People are smarter than that these days.
------------------------------------------
You ARE an optimist, aren't you? ;)
posted by Foolkiller at 12:01 A.M. EST on Mon Aug 15, 2005 #
Maybe "hopeful" is a better description, foolkiller...is that so bad?
posted by intrepid at 07:34 A.M. EST on Mon Aug 15, 2005 #
I'm NOT going there :-)
posted by Hooda_Thunkit at 02:44 P.M. EST on Mon Aug 15, 2005 #
I'm predicting a very low turn out under 20%, which will probably hurt Ford more than the other three.
I think it's going to be close.
Carty 30%
Wilkowski 25%
Ford 25%
Ludeman 18%
others 2%
posted by psyche777 at 02:59 P.M. EST on Mon Aug 15, 2005 #
Carty 32%
Ford 28%
Wilkowski 24%
Ludeman 13%
Others 3%
posted by fequalsma73 at 05:09 P.M. EST on Mon Aug 15, 2005 #
Ford 36%
Carty 30%
Ludeman 22%
Wilkowski 10%
Other 2%
posted by jthurst3000 at 10:39 A.M. EST on Tue Aug 16, 2005 #
Finkbeiner 27%
Ludeman 26%
Wilkowski 24%
Ford 14%
other 9%
posted by BrianInFlorida at 02:32 P.M. EST on Tue Aug 16, 2005 #
An unofficial tally of the predictions of Toledo Talk pundits reveals the following:
Finkbeiner - 33.67%
Ford - 22.77%
Ludeman - 20.89%
Wilkowski - 19.33%
Others - 3.34%
First place votes: Carty 8, Ford 1.
Second place Votes: Ford 4, Ludeman 3, Wilkowski 2, Finkbeiner 1.
posted by historymike at 03:08 P.M. EST on Tue Aug 16, 2005 #
fequalsma73 wins the prize for overall accuracy; jr takes a close second.
Here is what fequalsma73 predicted:
Carty 32%
Ford 28%
Wilkowski 24%
Ludeman 13%
Others 3%
I was way off on Ludeman; Republicans ran away from him in droves. Looks like they were hedging their bets on their number two choices and wrote Rob off.
posted by historymike at 06:16 A.M. EST on Wed Sep 14, 2005 #
Syndicate ToledoTalk
