Northwest Ohio key to presidential election - Yeah, we've heard all that, but this is an iteresting article, especially the stat about Ottawa County. "If there is a region of the state to watch in the presidential race, this is it. Somehow, the 12-county northwestern Ohio region not only picks the Ohio winner — 10 for 10 since 1964 — but it does so with uncanny accuracy. Abutting Lucas County on the east, Ottawa County has a perfect record in the past 10 elections of picking the presidential winner, six times supporting the GOP candidate and four times the Democratic nominee."
"In those 10 elections combined, the difference between the statewide presidential results and those in northwestern Ohio was less than 0.5 percentage points. None of Ohio’s other five regions comes close to predicting the statewide outcome."
"That northwestern Ohio has become the bellwether region of the bellwether state is remarkable because, except for Lucas County, the mostly agricultural region has a long Republican tradition."
"In effect, Lucas and its 11 surrounding counties cancel one another out in presidential races. Even though northwestern Ohio accounted for only 9 percent of the statewide vote in 2000, roughly 46.5 percent of it came from staunchly Democratic Lucas County, dominated by Toledo, the second-most unionized city in the nation."
And yet Toledo has either the highest or nearly the highest unemployment rate in the state. And it's not because of 3+ years of Bush. It's because of at least 20 years of Democrat control of Toledo and Lucas County.
"When Lucas County results are removed from northwestern Ohio’s vote totals in the past 10 presidential elections, Republican candidates received 16 percent more of the vote. Lucas County supported the Democrat by an average of 54 percent in those elections."
"Bush carried Wood County, the region’s second-largest, by nine points over Al Gore in 2000, but Democrat Bill Clinton won it in 1992 and 1996."
"Sandra Barber, Fulton County’s recorder and two-decade chairwoman of the county GOP, said the farm counties around Toledo are imbued with a conservative German ethic that values hard work, self-reliance and Christian beliefs."
"Perhaps no community in northwestern Ohio personifies the area’s Republicanism more than Archbold, a prosperous Fulton County village with more jobs than residents."
"Fifty miles to the east, there is a different political universe in Toledo, where support for Bush is as barren as the moon’s surface."
"Jerry Chabler, finance chairman of the county party, said Kerry needs to take 60 percent of the Lucas County vote to win statewide and "our polls show he’s in the high 50s here now." "
Yep, there's a belief that if 45-50% of Lucas County goes for Bush, then Bush will take Ohio. All eyes are on Lucas County and its popular vote count. Kerry will take Lucas County, but it's by how much that's important. If Kerry gets more than 55% of the Lucas County vote, then Kerry will take Ohio, and that will probably give him the presidency.
You can see why the Toledo market was bombarded by more presidential ads than anywhere else in the country. You can see why there have been so many visits to our area by the candidates.
It's interesting that the presidential election could be boiled down to Lucas County. That's probably stretching it a bit.
And keep an eye on who wins Ottawa County.
Winning Ohio is probably more important to Bush than Kerry.
If you believe in polls, it looks like Kerry will win. Ohio and Florida and some others are close, but as of Nov 1, most of these toss up states are leaning toward Kerry. If Bush wants to win, he needs to take Ohio AND Florida like he did in 02. If Kerry wins just one of those two states, he'll probably be president.
posted by jr to politics at 12:37 P.M. EST
(6 Comments)
Comments ...
If you are trying to speak to a human at the Lucas County Board of Elections, good luck. Phone number: 419-213-4001.
They're having phone problems due to the amount of incoming calls. Seven times I called and got through, but each time as soon as the person answered the phone and said, "Board of Elections," we got disconnected. I was starting to feel disenfranchised. There were several other times I called and the line was busy, but that's expected. The dropped calls, however, are a bit disturbing.
Finally I got to speak to someone, but she was no help. Thanks Lucas County.
Last year, Lucas County election results were updated during election day evening on this web page. I just wondered what this year's URL was for the results, but it's not available right now.
Wood County also gives updates throughout election evening, and their 2004 web page is ready.
Ottawa County's board of elections also has their 04 results web page ready. The top of the page currently says, "Results will be posted throughout Election Night as the ballots are received and counted at the Board of Elections Office."
You would think an important county like Lucas County would have made their real-time election results web page known to the public by now. Weak.
There's nothing about the 04 results page on the website http://www.lucascountyvotes.org
posted by jr at 01:54 P.M. EST on Mon Nov 01, 2004 #
Nov 1 article:
"With the presidential election just one day away and the race in Ohio as close as ever, grassroots organizations are working right up until the closing bell to maximize voter turnout in the northwest part of the state."
"Lucas County, where Toledo sits, is a key battleground in the struggle for Ohio. In the 2000 presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore won this area by a sizeable margin of more than 30,000 votes out of more than 188,000 votes cast. But some Republicans say a strong showing in Lucas County could clinch the presidential race in the state. County votes are not awarded on an all-or-nothing basis as in the Electoral College, so campaigns must fight for every vote, even in heavily partisan counties."
posted by jr at 02:00 P.M. EST on Mon Nov 01, 2004 #
I sent an e-mail to the webmaster of the Lucas County website, asking about the real-time election results, and this was the response:
"Due to complications and miscommunications involved in last year's posting of real-time election results, we will not be posting them this year until after all of the results are in. These will be posted some time late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning in PDF format. Please check back then. We are sorry for the trouble."
posted by jr at 03:24 P.M. EST on Mon Nov 01, 2004 #
From Ottawa County's elections website:
"Unofficial Results, Reporting 78 of 78 precincts. Does NOT include provisional ballots."
Bush : 11820
Kerry: 10915
posted by jr at 10:42 P.M. EST on Tue Nov 02, 2004 #
12 in a row for Ottawa County.
In Lucas County, Kerry got about 60% of the vote, Bush about 40%. Local Democrats and local Republicans are proud of those numbers. In 2000 in Lucas County, Gore had 60% and Bush 40%. A lot more voters this time, but no change in percentages.
posted by jr at 01:56 P.M. EST on Thu Nov 04, 2004 #
Oops. I guess that's 11 in a row for Ottawa County. I don't know who they're predicting for 2008.
posted by jr at 02:10 P.M. EST on Thu Nov 04, 2004 #
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