Toledo Talk

July 4-6, 2012 Weather

Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 9:00 p.m. this evening, July 4.

Three days of excessive heat, then only a hot day on Saturday, followed by a few days of noticeably cooler weather.


Noontime temps on July 4 are already approaching the mid 90s. I think Toledo's all-time record high temp is 106. If skies remain mostly clear today, then late afternoon temps could reach the 102 to 104 range or higher.

Last Thursday, June 28, 2012, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temp of 103. A Noon last Thursday, the temperature at Toledo Express was 88. Today at Noon, it's 93. The high temp today will probably occur between 4:00 and 6:00 p.m.

But last Thursday, the dew points were lower, the air dryer. Today is more humid, which is why we have the excessive heat warning. It's possible that with more moisture in the air today, our afternoon temps may get thwarted somewhat by clouds or haze. This morning, the sky was clear. But around Noon, some small clouds have formed. It won't matter much. "Only" 100 degrees won't feel that different from 104.

1:00 p.m. temps are 95 degrees at both Toledo Express and Toledo Metcalf airports. In the past hour or so, some small cumulus clouds have formed, so the sky is partly cloudy after being clear all morning.


National Weather Service forecast issued Wednesday morning, July 4:

Today: Mostly sunny this morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Hot with highs around 101. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 109.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then mostly clear after midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 108 early in the evening.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid with highs in the upper 90s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Humid with lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid with highs around 99. West winds around 5 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.


Toledo record high temps:

  • July 4 - 99 in 1955
  • July 5 - 99 in 1988
  • July 6 - 100 in 1988


July 4, 2012 Toledo airport temps:

MetcalfExpress
7:00 am7475
8:00 am7778
9:00 am8282
10:00 am8686
11:00 am8989
12:00 pm9493
1:00 pm9595
2:00 pm9796
3:00 pm9998
4:00 pm9998
5:00 pm10099
6:00 pm9998
7:00 pm9997
8:00 pm9695
*9:00 pm8388 (84 at 9:09 p.m.)

* Storms moved through eastern Lucas County, and downdraft winds or outflow from the storms brought cooler air to areas that did not receive any rain.


July 4, 2012, 9:56 a.m. Cleveland NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook for Ottawa and Seneca counties and points east:

some of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be severe
with damaging winds and large hail. spotter activation is not expected at this time.


According to this morning's convective outlook by the Storm Prediction Center, the best chance for storms on July 4 is in northeast Ohio.

The SPC convective outlook updated at 12:34 p.m. EDT, July 4, now includes northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms for later today.


July 4, 2012, 10:23 a.m. Cleveland NWS Area Forecast Discussion

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
an area of showers and thunderstorms heading into nw pa. then the
question is when will other thunderstorms develop. it may take
some time before thunderstorms developed. delayed them over much
of the area until after 3 pm. confidence in the timing of when
they will develop is low.

.short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
as the night progresses...the threat for thunderstorm activity
will push south as the weak cold front and high pressure nudge
their way south into the area.

the threat for showers and thunderstorms return once again friday
night into saturday as next back door cold front slides south to
just north of lake erie by saturday evening.


Current satellite image of cloud cover. Click here to enlarge.


If we get storms today, they will probably move southeast out of Michigan or Wisconsin.

Current radar image. Click here to enlarge.


Storm Prediction Center Current Mesoscale Discussions - Detailed analysis on areas that could receive severe weather.


Current Convective Watches

Tornado Watch boxes are outlined in red.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch boxes are outlined in blue.

created by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 11:32:07 am
updated by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 09:18:23 pm
    Outdoors     Comments: 81

source      versions      1 person liked this


Comments ... #

Nooooo!! Dislike.

posted by historymike on Jul 04, 2012 at 12:17:47 pm     #   2 people liked this

At 12:34 p.m. EDT, the Storm Prediction Center issued a new convective outlook for today, and northwest Ohio now has a slightly better chance for storms.

Click here to enlarge image.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 12:50:28 pm     #  

The 4th is kinda blown since it's on a Wednesday anyways. Most people I know with kids aren't even going out for fireworks.

Still going to show respect my own way though today.

Just hope it's better this weekend for the Lighthouse festival.

posted by INeedCoffee on Jul 04, 2012 at 01:04:31 pm     #  

Meh: I am teaching a 4-hour accelerated class that meets Tuesdays and Thursdays, so I have no holiday this year, as my day "off" is getting eaten up with grading and lecture prep. (Note to self: stop being greedy and saying "yes" to every summer teaching gig that comes along)

posted by historymike on Jul 04, 2012 at 01:21:27 pm     #  

My job involves working outside all day. This summer has already been tough and I fear the remainder will be even worse. Is there any end in sight to ehis pattern of high temperatures?

posted by holland on Jul 04, 2012 at 01:47:21 pm     #  

3:59 p.m. SPC mesoscale discussion

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 04:47:10 pm     #  

4:45 p.m. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued that includes southeast Michigan.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 04:50:02 pm     #  

106 degrees in our West Toledo backyard right now!

posted by viola on Jul 04, 2012 at 04:52:08 pm     #  

We hit 102F at my West Toledo house today, but my digital thermometer is mounted on a high porch pillar in the shade. Right now (about 6:00 pm) it is 99.5F.

posted by historymike on Jul 04, 2012 at 05:52:03 pm     #  

What direction is ESEWD?

posted by Linecrosser on Jul 04, 2012 at 05:53:45 pm     #  

ESEWD means East-Southeastward. Moving toward the east-southeast.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 06:14:23 pm     #  

What direction is NSWD?

posted by madjack on Jul 04, 2012 at 06:35:53 pm     #  

I am confused about this direction I keep seeing that is labeled "NSFW." My boss got really mad for some unknown reason when I got one of those NSFW directional dealios and I then went outside to look at the skies. He is a real weirdo, that boss.

Also: what direction is 4WD, anyway? And what about WD-40?

posted by historymike on Jul 04, 2012 at 06:57:55 pm     #  

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cle/

posted by Linecrosser on Jul 04, 2012 at 07:11:49 pm     #  

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued a while ago that included the eastern edge of Lucas County.

Statement as of 7:09 PM EDT on July 04, 2012

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

  • Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
    western Erie County in north central Ohio
    northeastern Lucas County in Northwest Ohio
    Ottawa County in Northwest Ohio
    northeastern Sandusky County in Northwest Ohio
  • until 800 PM EDT
  • at 704 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
    a cluster of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter
    size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms
    were located over Lake Erie just west of the islands. The storms
    were moving southeast at 20 mph.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 07:34:03 pm     #  

Regarding ESEWD : If I live long enough, I expect to hear us all speaking in acronyms. IILLE, IETHUASIA. :-)
I wonder what genius decided to tack WD onto the abbreviated compass directions without telling anybody.

posted by pete on Jul 04, 2012 at 07:44:22 pm     #  

This is what happens when people don't wait to cut their grass til after 6pm on ozone action days.
Thanks a lot!

posted by hockeyfan on Jul 04, 2012 at 07:46:34 pm     #  

7:08 p.m. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion.

summary...storms may persist over sern mi and drift swd into n cntrl
oh this evening with a wind and marginal hail threat. an additional
watch is unlikely at this time.

discussion...cells across sern mi and swrn ontario have consolidated
into a cluster...with other cells forming atop the lake breeze
across wrn lake erie. these storms may continue to slowly propagate
in a swd direction where very warm temperatures exist. damaging
outflow winds may occur...and could affect a small area just s of
the existing watch.


It appears the storms will continue to move south-southeast and pass to the east of Toledo, unless something new pops up.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 07:50:20 pm     #  

Snake-bit once again for rain, though at least the power is on and my A/C units are pumping out icy-cold air.

posted by historymike on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:04:23 pm     #  

"Regarding ESEWD ..."

The weather statements that are created by the National Weather Service are not meant for consumption by normal people. The NWS relies on the media to translate the info for the public. I prefer to cut-out the middleman and get the cryptic info from the source.

A new severe thunderstorm warning was just issued that includes the southwest corner of Wood County where a new cell just popped up. Storms are located to the north, east, and south of Toledo.

Statement as of 7:57 PM EDT on July 04, 2012

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

  • Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
    southwestern Crawford County in north central Ohio
    Marion County in north central Ohio
    Hancock County in Northwest Ohio
    southwestern Wood County in Northwest Ohio
    Wyandot County in Northwest Ohio
  • until 845 PM EDT
  • at 752 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
    a developing line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
    quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These
    storms were located along a line extending from Custar to 11 miles
    northeast of Morral... and moving south at 15 mph.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:05:10 pm     #  

This radar loop ending at 8:00 p.m. shows how quickly the cell formed in southwest Wood County, so I guess something could pop-up closer to Toledo yet this evening.

The yellow areas are under a severe thunderstorm warning. Pink is related to heat warnings or advisories. Green is for flooding-related statements.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:16:25 pm     #  

Flash Flood Warning

Statement as of 8:08 PM EDT on July 04, 2012

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

  • Flash Flood Warning for...
    east central Lucas County in Northwest Ohio...
    eastern Sandusky County in Northwest Ohio...
    Erie County in north central Ohio...
    Ottawa County in Northwest Ohio...
  • until 200 am EDT.
  • At 802 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
    slow moving thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across the
    warned area. Radar indicates that around 2 inches of rain has
    fallen already in part of Ottawa County.
  • Locations impacted include...
    Sandusky...
    Port Clinton...
    Fremont...
    CLyde...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property. Do not attempt to cross
swiftly flowing waters or waters of unknown depth by foot or by
automobile.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:18:01 pm     #  

I love the map on the right. I found myself coming here to look for impending storms. :)

posted by tlm0000 on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:21:27 pm     #  

historymike posted at 08:04:23 PM on Jul 04, 2012:

Snake-bit once again for rain, though at least the power is on and my A/C units are pumping out icy-cold air.

The sky has darkened in West Toledo. It seems that a small, new cell has formed near the state line, and it's moving south.

This radar loop ending at 8:21 p.m. shows the newly-formed cell that could soak historymike's lawn.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:25:05 pm     #  

8:26 p.m. radar image. Still dry in West Toledo. I think historymike's storm is sliding to the east and will miss us.


Radar loop ending at 8:33 p.m. It appears the western half of Lucas County will remain dry. So far.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:38:17 pm     #  

INeedCoffee posted at 01:04:31 PM on Jul 04, 2012:

The 4th is kinda blown since it's on a Wednesday anyways. Most people I know with kids aren't even going out for fireworks.

Still going to show respect my own way though today.

Just hope it's better this weekend for the Lighthouse festival.

There was a great turnout last night for Sylvania's fireworks.

I thought about going downtown tonight, but am pretty exhausted after being out in the heat all day.

Spent the day in Dundee...thermometer in the shade was reading 102. Ugh.

posted by mom2 on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:54:34 pm     #  

Look at the outflow on that latest radar loop...wow!

posted by avinsurer on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:55:17 pm     #  

Avinsurer...what does that mean? (For those of us that don't speak weather-ese.) :)

posted by mom2 on Jul 04, 2012 at 08:59:01 pm     #  

mom2 posted at 08:59:01 PM on Jul 04, 2012:

Avinsurer...what does that mean? (For those of us that don't speak weather-ese.) :)

Weather terms

Outflow - Air that flows outward from a thunderstorm.

Outflow Boundary - A storm-scale or mesoscale boundary separating thunderstorm-cooled air (outflow) from the surrounding air; similar in effect to a cold front, with passage marked by a wind shift and usually a drop in temperature.

Wikipedia - Outflow boundary :

Outflow boundaries can be seen either as fine lines on weather radar imagery or else as arcs of low clouds on weather satellite imagery. From the ground, outflow boundaries can be co-located with the appearance of roll clouds and shelf clouds.

Toledo Express Airport weather:

  • 7:52 p.m. : temp = 95 degrees - winds = W-NW at 9 mph
  • 8:52 p.m. : temp = 88 degrees - winds = E at 23 mph gust to 28 mph
  • 9:09 p.m. : temp = 84 degrees - winds = E-NE at 15 mph gust to 24 mph

It did not rain at Toledo Express Airport, but the airport and others who remained dry at least felt the wind shift and temperature drop from the passing storms.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 09:33:29 pm     #  

The Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook issued at 9:00 p.m. EDT on July 4 shows that we still have a slight risk for storms between now and 8:00 a.m. Thursday, July 5.


If the activity in the Lake Superior area holds up, it could drop down into our area on Thursday morning. At the very least, it could create a cloudy start to Thursday, which could keep our temps from rising as high as forecast.

Loop through 10:00 p.m.

posted by jr on Jul 04, 2012 at 10:26:33 pm     #  

Weather alarm sounds at 3:05 a.m.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for southeast Michigan until 8:00 a.m.


This cluster of storms must be stronger than they appear on this 3:14 a.m. radar image. New development, however, has recently occurred out ahead of the main cluster. The storms seem to be tracking southeast toward western Lake Erie.


From the Storm Prediction Center:

discussion...small mcs with a history of wind damage will continue
sewd across the watch area early this morning. the combination of a
warm and moist inflow air mass and moderately strong deep...nwly
shear will be supportive of forward-propagation/acceleration with a
risk for mainly damaging winds.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 03:34:48 am     #  

Counties under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 3:44 a.m.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 03:51:11 am     #  

4:28 a.m. radar image shows new development has occurred west-southwest of the main group of storms, so the Toledo area may get some rain and thunder.


Counties under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 4:35 a.m. Monroe County will probably be next.


Storm Prediction Center issued a new mesoscale discussion at 4:12 a.m.


From the SPC:

summary...a corridor of damaging wind/some hail potential will
continue to quickly spread southeastward across southeast lower
mi...potentially impacting the detroit metro area by 0830z-0900z
/430am-5am local time/. severe tstm watch 467 continues until 12z.
mcs downstream portions of northern oh will be monitored for an
additional severe tstm watch early this morning.

discussion...a roughly 50-mile north-south extensive...and now very
well-organized...quasi-linear convective cluster/associated bowing
structure continues to steadily grow upscale/mature as it spreads
southeastward across southeast lower mi early this
morning...centered between the lansing and flint areas as of 08z.
forward propagation/acceleration continues to occur with some
elements now moving east-southeastward at near 50 kt...with a 50 kt
wind gust recently /0728z/ measured at lansing mi.

the distinct likelihood of cold pool expansion and additional forward
acceleration/propagation in the short-term...with continued gust
front uplift/leading echoes readily evident...will likely maintain
damaging wind/some hail potential across the remainder of southeast
lower mi /including the detroit metro area/ even while a shallow
near-surface stable layer exists. it is conceivable that this mcs
could persist into portions of northern oh within the next few hours
/10z or after/.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:48:01 am     #  

Cleveland NWS:

special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
426 am edt thu jul 5 2012

thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible early this morning
across northern ohio.

thunderstorms will move from michigan and ontario into northern
ohio early this morning. some of these storms have a history of
damaging winds gusts. some of these storms will likely continue
to have damaging winds in excess of 60 mph as they move into
northern ohio.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:52:55 am     #  

Marine Warning
Statement as of 4:48 AM EDT on July 05, 2012

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

  • special marine warning for...
    Maumee Bay to Ripley NY...
  • until 645 am EDT
  • at 445 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
    line of thunderstorms... producing severe winds in excess of 50 knots
    just north of Detroit... moving southeast at 50 knots. Other
    thunderstorms were also developing on Lake Erie north of Fairport
    Harbor.
  • Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
    Put-In-Bay... Sandusky Bay... Kelleys Island... Huron... Lorain
    Harbor... Avon Point... Cleveland... Fairport Harbor... Erie and
    Ashtabula.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:54:22 am     #  

Radar loop ending at 4:59 a.m.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:03:51 am     #  

The storms in southeast Michigan have recently weakened. No warnings have been issued for Lenawee or Monroe counties. Some areas of Lucas County may get some rain and thunder, but at the moment, it seems that nothing severe is expected in our area.

Cleveland NWS issued this statement, which is probably more of a concern for north central and northeast Ohio.

special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
426 am edt thu jul 5 2012

thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible early this morning
across northern ohio.

thunderstorms will move from michigan and ontario into northern
ohio early this morning. some of these storms have a history of
damaging winds gusts. some of these storms will likely continue
to have damaging winds in excess of 60 mph as they move into
northern ohio.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:21:50 am     #  

Winds gusted briefly in West Toledo at 5:28 a.m. probably due to the downdrafts spreading out ahead of the storms.

At 5:29 a.m., a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for the northeast corner of Monroe County.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:36:16 am     #  

5:35 a.m. radar image. It would be nice if that larger area of light to moderate rain, located in central Michigan, could visit us later this morning, but I suppose it will move east of us too.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:45:48 am     #  

Some small cells have quickly formed in western Lucas County.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:54:33 am     #  

At 6:15 a.m., a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for counties east of Lucas.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 06:20:11 am     #  

Dang, jr, don't you ever sleep? :-) Just enough rain fell in West Toledo this morning to make me stop watering the garden. Looks like I'll be back out with the hose later today.

posted by viola on Jul 05, 2012 at 06:27:56 am     #  

These storms keep slipping past us. We need a good downpour to turn the bloody heat down. Especially those of us without any form of A/C. Fingers crossed.

posted by RobJelf on Jul 05, 2012 at 06:28:09 am     #  

My brother sent me a text message with the following audio in it. Sums it up quite well I thought.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apm113s8m1c

posted by JeepMaker on Jul 05, 2012 at 10:43:15 am     #  

Based upon this radar loop ending at 3:25 p.m., I'm guessing that part's of Toledo are getting wet.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 03:32:09 pm     #  

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 3:19 PM EDT on July 05, 2012

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

  • Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
    Lucas County in Northwest Ohio
    northern Wood County in Northwest Ohio
  • until 415 PM EDT
  • at 316 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
    severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
    damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
    Sylvania... and moving southeast at 25 mph.
  • Locations impacted include...
    Toledo...
    Waterville...
    Bowling Green...
    Holland...
    Rossford...
    Whitehouse...
    Oregon...
    Perrysburg...
    Northwood...

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 03:39:02 pm     #  

At 3:27 p.m., the SPC issued this mesoscale discussion.


From the Storm Prediction Center:

areas affected...se lower mi...nw oh and ne ind

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

summary...a severe threat may develop across se lower mi...nw oh and
ne ind late this afternoon. wind damage and hail should be the
primary threats. however...the threats should remain isolated and ww
issuance remains uncertain attm.

discussion...a cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing in sern lower mi
located on the nrn edge of moderate instability. the activity
appears to be near an old outflow boundary where low-level
convergence is locally enhanced. mlcape values are estimated around
1500 j/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates likely exceeding 8.0 c/km
from the outflow boundary to the southwest across far nw oh and ne
ind.

this along with a tendency for the storms to become
increasingly sfc-based late this afternoon...may result in a gradual
intensification. the steep low-level lapse rates may result in an
isolated wind damage threat especially if the cells can organize
into a line. this may depend upon whether the activity can access
the stronger instability to the south. in addition to the wind
damage threat...hail will also be possible with the stronger updraft
cores.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 03:45:16 pm     #  

I was teaching at Lourdes and we lost power about 3:15 pm. After 20 minutes or so we decided to call it a day: history is not much fun in the dark and with thunder crashing, not to mention the lack of A/C.

posted by historymike on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:10:36 pm     #  

Be careful. Wires down all over.

posted by SherryET on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:14:22 pm     #  

I passed a massive tree limb in the middle of Monroe Street near Starlight Plaze about 30 minutes ago. It looked like 1/4 of a goodly-sized oak tree.

posted by historymike on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:20:00 pm     #  

Who - First Energy is reporting 35,000+ customers without power in the area, and over 15,000 just in Toledo right now:

outages 7-5-12

posted by historymike on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:24:31 pm     #  

Rain for a while and some thunder on the East Side.Nothing to right home about.

posted by SherryET on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:29:59 pm     #  

Another strong cell has entered western Lucas County, and it caused a warning for Fulton County.

I'm east of Toledo right now, but I've heard that a good number of trees and wires are down in the Toledo area. Apparently, a part of I-475 was affected by a downed wire or something.

The only storm reports reported to the NWS thus far are:

07/05/2012 0325 PM
Sylvania, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Over a dozen trees down,one large one on a house. Several
large branches down as well. Power out for many homes and
businesses.

07/05/2012 0348 PM
Perrysburg, Wood County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.
3 utitlity poles down along Lime City Road and state rt
795.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:31:05 pm     #  

WTOL story updated at 4:26 p.m. :

Damage has been reported in multiple communities west of Toledo. Authorities are asking people to stay inside and away from the areas affected by the storms.

I-475 is closed in both directions between Central Avenue and Airport Highway due to down power lines. Drivers should use I-75 as a detour.

Central Avenue is closed just west of North Reynolds Road in Sylvania Township.

Damage is also being reported along Holland-Sylvania Rd. from Central Ave. to Airport Hwy.

Almost 44,000 people are without power in Lucas County, according to Toledo Edison. To check power outage figures from Toledo Edison, visit http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/oh.html.

Damage has been reported with fallen trees and power lines.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:41:03 pm     #  

Drove home south on McCord between Bancroft and Angola. Saw two big silver maples that had creamed houses and another took out part of an apartment complex. Took out a portion of the brick wall.

Hats off to Short Cut Lawn Service. Two guys got out of their truck on Hill Ave just east of McCord, got out their chain saws, and cleared a tree that was totally blocking both sides of the road.

posted by holland on Jul 05, 2012 at 04:44:38 pm     #  

I just drove through the same area. I can not believe the amount of trees that were either completely pulled out of the ground or split in half, much less the branches everywhere. The storm only lasted a matter of minutes but it absolutely destroyed the path it took.

posted by WillWorkForWork on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:48:06 pm     #  

WTOL just showed a picture of an absolutely massive tree completely blocking that little side entrance to Home Depot on Holland Sylvania across from Old Navy.

posted by WillWorkForWork on Jul 05, 2012 at 05:49:32 pm     #  

SherryET posted at 04:29:59 PM on Jul 05, 2012:

Rain for a while and some thunder on the East Side.Nothing to right home about.

Oh boy, was I wrong about write.

posted by SherryET on Jul 05, 2012 at 06:06:23 pm     #  

Dozens of large trees down in the St. James Wood neighborhood near Central and McCord, and they all fell directly south. No power, either. I heard the substation at Reynolds and Central "blew up" and power may be out for days.

posted by JohnnyMac on Jul 05, 2012 at 06:31:46 pm     #  

The wind blew so hard in Holland at 3:45P.M., the mirrors on my parked car were turned out ?!
It was as black as night, black as coal, with limbs and rain in a parallel and horizontal fight for space !

posted by Avery on Jul 05, 2012 at 07:11:07 pm     #  

A huge tree in my brother's yard in Sylvania Township snapped in half. Electricity also out.

posted by bikerdude on Jul 05, 2012 at 07:21:29 pm     #  

Here are radar images of the severe storm that hit parts of Lucas County this afternoon. Obviously, the images overlap some in the time sequence. The storm developed fast.

Radar shows the outflow boundary, spreading toward the southwest.

In the second and third images, note how the storm seems to form rapidly along the dip or bend in the outflow boundary, just north of the Ohio-Michigan border. I have no idea if that had any affect on the storm's severity, or if it's just a coincidence.

To enlarge the images, right click on the image and open in a new tab or whatever your browser does.

2:13 to 2:43 p.m.


2:31 to 3:01 p.m.


2:49 p.m. to 3:19 p.m.


2:55 to 3:25 p.m.


3:07 to 3:37 p.m.


3:13 to 3:43 p.m.


3:25 to 3:55 p.m.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 07:25:45 pm     #  

Still no power here in our neighborhood near Centennial Terrace.

The terrace itself appears to have power, as people are arriving for the Bret Michaels concert tonight.

There are so many downed trees & limbs here...it's crazy! All from a brief, no more than 15 minute, storm. Wonder what the speed was on those wind gusts?

We went out to dinner & saw a whole lot of damage along the way...

posted by mom2 on Jul 05, 2012 at 07:34:24 pm     #  

Still no power in St. James. Actually, kind if nice. Many people out walking around, riding bikes, and everyone is being extra neighborly. I'm listening to the Mud Hens on the front porch and making sure I don't waste any ice. ;)

posted by JohnnyMac on Jul 05, 2012 at 07:41:59 pm     #  

Took almost two hours to get home on 475 because of down tree and power lines. Flag pole at St. Johns is completely bent, just in their parking lot alone were over twenty broken or pulled trees from the ground. Many downed stop lights. Many were being directed by civilians. Many people also just blowin through non directed down lights and not treating them as four way stops. When driving through the area it was almost unreal. My neighborhood was lucky and seems untouched. Sylvania-Whiteford area. Have power here.

posted by justphillips on Jul 05, 2012 at 08:22:43 pm     #  

"Wonder what the speed was on those wind gusts?"

Officials from the National Weather Service may investigate and give estimates. Thus far, I've seen no reports from anyone to the NWS on measured wind speeds. I would guess winds were 60 to 70 mph and possibly a little higher.

I have not read much about what happened with this storm yet. The unusual part thus far seems to be that it was such a big area that received these severe thunderstorm winds. Big for us. I think typically, our severe thunderstorms produce very localized severe winds.

When I got home this evening in the Douglas-Sylvania area, I could tell that it rained, but I saw no signs of torrential downpours nor strong winds, since our Oak Openings native plants were still upright, and the yard only contained a few twigs and leaves. Hardly any cleanup is needed. We got lucky. And the power was on from Jackman Rd at I-475 to home.

posted by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 08:22:44 pm     #  

yeah, it's weird. where I am in the OWE, it was just rain.. no wind.

posted by upso on Jul 05, 2012 at 08:28:50 pm     #  

Got kind of dark and a little rain here in S toledo. But from talking to people in Holland and Sylvania Twp., it sounds like they got slammed.

posted by Ace_Face on Jul 05, 2012 at 09:27:08 pm     #  

Lost power around 3:30pm. Still not on yet. In south Toledo.

posted by slowsol on Jul 05, 2012 at 09:58:22 pm     #  

Drove home down the Central Avenue strip tonight at about 11:20 tonight, and it was totally dark. Certainly a sight to (not) see.

St. James is dark and still, except for one generator groaning in the distance. It feels like a rural camp site. It feels like 100 years ago. It's nice.

posted by JohnnyMac on Jul 05, 2012 at 11:48:32 pm     #  

JohnnyMac posted at 11:48:32 PM on Jul 05, 2012:

Drove home down the Central Avenue strip tonight at about 11:20 tonight, and it was totally dark. Certainly a sight to (not) see.

St. James is dark and still, except for one generator groaning in the distance. It feels like a rural camp site. It feels like 100 years ago. It's nice.

It was the most bizarre thing to approach the Central/McCord intersection at midnight, and see Central Ave be pitch black as far as the eye could see!

(We went to a movie at Fallen Timbers tonight to get out of the dark house. Had to take McCord home because US-23 was closed north of Airport.)

Power just came back on here...was off for almost exactly 12 hours.

posted by mom2 on Jul 06, 2012 at 03:14:21 am     #  

A measured wind gust of 89 mph was reported near Holland yesterday. See at the bottom of this post.


The official high temp at Toledo Express Airport on Wednesday, July 4, 2012 was 100 degrees, which broke the old record of 99 degrees set in 1955.

The official high temp at Toledo Express Airport on Thursday, July 5, 2012 was 98 degrees, and that was obtained shortly after 3:00 p.m. Without yesterday's storms, the temp would have reached triple digits again because the high temp right now is usually reached after 5:00 p.m. The temps rose rapidly yesterday after the morning cloudiness moved away, and then the temps cooled considerably after the storms.

July 5 Toledo Express Airport temps:

  • 7:52 a.m. - 73
  • 10:52 a.m. - 84
  • 1:52 p.m. - 96
  • 3:11 p.m. - 98.6
  • 3:38 p.m. - 82.4
  • 4:45 p.m. - 73.4


NWS Statement as of 3:57 AM EDT on July 06, 2012

... Excessive heat warning remains in effect from noon today to
9 PM EDT this evening...

  • Impacts... heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees this
    afternoon and evening will impact adversely outdoor
    activities... especially for sensitive groups.


Forecast issued at 6:19 a.m. this morning, July 6. It's suppose to be hotter on Saturday than expected a couple days ago. But high temps in the low 80s are forecast for early next week.

Today: Sunny...hot with highs around 101. West winds around 5 mph. Heat index values up to 112 this afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Heat index values up to 112 early in the evening.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot. Humid with highs in the upper 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. Heat index values up to 109.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then partly sunny in the afternoon. Not as warm. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.


Storm Reports

07/05/2012 0320 PM
1 miles N of Holland, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind gust m89.00 mph, reported by trained spotter.

07/05/2012 0325 PM
Toledo, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind gust e60.00 mph, reported by public.
West side of city.

07/05/2012 0339 PM
Holland, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind gust e70.00 mph, reported by trained spotter.

07/05/2012 0340 PM
Toledo, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Numerous trees down, up to 3 feet in diameter, along with
utility poles and wires. From Sylvania to just east of
Holland and west-southwest sections of Toledo.

07/05/2012 0339 PM
Holland, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Several limbs down, Railroad crossing gates and traffic
lights damaged.

07/05/2012 0331 PM
Maumee, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Several trees and limbs down.

07/05/2012 0325 PM
Toledo, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.
Limbs and branches down west side of city.

07/05/2012 0346 PM
Toledo, Lucas County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Ten trees down west side of city.

posted by jr on Jul 06, 2012 at 08:12:21 am     #  

Wow

posted by upso on Jul 06, 2012 at 08:16:04 am     #  

I forgot to post the link to the storm reports:

Reports from Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa counties go to the Cleveland National Weather Service:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=LSR&node=KCLE

Reports from Fulton County go to the weather service in northern Indiana:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=LSR&node=KIWX

Here are some reports from Fulton County:

07/05/2012 0403 PM
2 miles S of Tedrow, Fulton County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.
Report of power poles down at State Route 2 and County
Road 18. Time estimated from radar.

07/05/2012 0404 PM
2 miles NE of Wauseon, Fulton County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.
Report of power poles down near U.S. 20 and County Road
13 northeast of Wauseon. Time estimated from radar.

07/05/2012 0408 PM
2 miles S of Winameg, Fulton County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.
Report of power poles down near County Road j and
County Road 10-2. Time estimated from radar.

posted by jr on Jul 06, 2012 at 09:03:54 am     #  

A measured wind gust of 89 mph was reported near Holland yesterday.

I believe it!

Last night, we took McCord from Central down to Airport. (Went to Fallen Timbers to catch a late movie, since there was no power at home.)

That whole stretch of road was nothing but branches, limbs, downed trees, etc.

There was a huge tree down in front of the Holland library branch - from what I could see, it narrowly missed crushing the building.

posted by mom2 on Jul 06, 2012 at 10:52:11 am     #  

Friday night statement from the NWS:

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
941 pm edt fri jul 6 2012

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

...excessive heat warning in effect from 11 am to 9 pm edt
saturday...

some of the thunderstorms late saturday afternoon and evening
could be severe as a cold front will move through the region.

posted by jr on Jul 06, 2012 at 11:04:42 pm     #  

My neighborhood, Lincoln Green, is a disaster. 6 oak trees fell in my yard alone. And there's a snapped utility pole back there too.

posted by jbtaurus98 on Jul 07, 2012 at 10:56:39 am     #  

Toledo Express Airport reports 93 degrees at 11:00 a.m.

Excerpts from this morning's statements issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service:

Forecast issued at 9:36 a.m.

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny early...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs around 102. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 111.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Not as warm with highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds around 10 mph.


Hazardous Weather Outlook issued at 5:27 a.m.

excessive heat warning in effect from 11 am this morning to 9 pm
edt this evening.

there is a chance of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight.

spotter activation may be needed this afternoon or this evening.


Area Forecast Discussion issued at 10:20 a.m.

scattered convection may developed late this afternoon with the
approach of a weak cold front now just north of lake erie. intense
heating over the next few hours and gradual cooling aloft should
reduce the cin/cap currently in place after 20z. damaging
downburst winds are likely with any storm development given the
dcape of 1600 j/kg in place and surface delta theta values well
over 30c expected in the afternoon.

the cold front will sag south across the forecast area early
tonight. will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
tonight. the models have been insistent that the front is shallow
and there will be enough upward motion north of the front for a
continuing chance of showers/thunderstorms tonight into sunday. i
expect that most of the showers by late tonight and sunday morning
will be light...falling out of a mid deck of clouds...except for
the spots that continue to get some convection. the showers should
move south of the forecast area by mid afternoon sunday. canadian
high pressure will build southeast the first half of the week
bringing dry and seasonable weather back to the area.


Excerpts from the Storm Prediction Center's 8:45 a.m. Convective Outlook

...srn great lakes ewd to the atlantic coast...
ongoing elevated convective clusters north of the front will
continue to shift ewd into/across srn ontario through the morning.
low-level ascent invof the front will be augmented by differential
heating over the srn fringes of debris cloudiness...and by lake
breeze circulations over the srn shore of lake erie. isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid
afternoon invof the front from sern lower mi to srn ny and srn new
england. mlcape values are forecast to increase to 1500-3000 j/kg
ahead of the front owing to strong diurnal heating amidst
boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to around
70f...supporting at least isolated svr storms.

posted by jr on Jul 07, 2012 at 11:28:46 am     #  

Fair
92F
33C

Humidity 58%
Wind Speed SW 12 mph
Barometer 29.93 in (1012.8 mb)
Dewpoint 75F (24C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 103F (39C)

Last Update on 7 Jul 10:53 am EDT
Current conditions at
Toledo, Metcalf Field (KTDZ)
Lat: 41.56 Lon: -83.48 Elev: 620ft.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jul 07, 2012 at 11:51:04 am     #  

Yikes - I was eyeball-deep in work and just noticed the temperature is really starting to spike. 99.6 degrees at 1:12 pm with my shaded thermometer, and 103 degrees with a thermometer I have in the sun.

With the humidity being higher it is definitely sauna-like conditions in my yard. Twenty minutes of picking weeds (mostly in the shade) and I was soaked with sweat. Blecch.

posted by historymike on Jul 07, 2012 at 01:14:49 pm     #  

2:00 p.m. airport temps:

  • Toledo Express 98
  • Toledo Metcalf 99

Right now, it appears that the best chance for severe thunderstorm development will occur well east of us.

1:48 p.m. SPC mesoscale discussion

summary...prospects for strong to severe storm development appear to
be increasing ahead of a slow moving cold front crossing the ern
great lakes this afternoon. a watch will likely be needed from ern
oh to wrn pa shortly.

discussion...very hot and unstable conditions have developed from oh
east into wrn pa and wrn ny this afternoon. as alluded to in
previous discussion for watch 477...residual outflow boundary/front
intersection in wrn ny has provided renewed focus for tstm
development in this area. farther west...lake breeze convergence
ahead of the front...in concert with diurnal heating...will likely
continue to weaken the cap sufficiently for additional storm
initiation into the afternoon. entire region lies to the south of a
belt of stronger mid level flow but magnitude of instability and
weak height falls aiding lift along the front settling into the
areas...should prove supportive of an increase in severe storm
coverage over the next several hours...especially from nern oh into
wrn/cntrl pa.

posted by jr on Jul 07, 2012 at 02:07:14 pm     #