Toledo Talk

July 5, 2012 National Weather Service Messages

Archiving text.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/

000
WUUS51 KCLE 051919
SVRCLE
OHC095-173-052015-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0120.120705T1919Z-120705T2015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
    NORTHERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
  • UNTIL 415 PM EDT
  • AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    SYLVANIA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
  • LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    TOLEDO...
    WATERVILLE...
    BOWLING GREEN...
    HOLLAND...
    ROSSFORD...
    WHITEHOUSE...
    OREGON...
    PERRYSBURG...
    NORTHWOOD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4172 8389 4173 8374 4174 8345 4172 8341
4170 8342 4169 8337 4172 8334 4171 8332
4164 8321 4163 8316 4162 8341 4138 8342
4137 8389
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 330DEG 21KT 4166 8370

$$

OUDEMAN

Hazardous Weather Outlooks

Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-061945-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-HANCOCK-SENECA-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-MARION-
MORROW-
338 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HEAT ADVISORY.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-061645-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-HANCOCK-SENECA-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-MARION-
MORROW-
1232 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HEAT ADVISORY.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$

000
FLUS41 KCLE 051329
HWOCLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-061330-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
MEDINA-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-
KNOX-
929 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

OHZ003-006-017-027-036-061115-
LUCAS-WOOD-HANCOCK-WYANDOT-MARION-
705 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$

000
FLUS41 KCLE 050817
HWOCLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-060830-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
MEDINA-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-
KNOX-
417 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Area Forecast Discussions

Area Forecast Discussion by the Cleveland National Weather Service

000
FXUS61 KCLE 052234
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN THE AREA HAS CAUSED THE TEMPS TO DROP OVER THE
WEST SO THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER NEEDED AND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SW IS JUST BEYOND THE SW BORDER
OF THE CWA BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP. GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PAST HOUR EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE CELLS IN THE SW THREE COUNTIES. AS
SUNSETS EVEN THESE CELLS SHOULD DIE OFF OR MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA SO
WILL ALLOW CHANCE POPS THERE TO DECREASE ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WILL TRY FOR A DRY FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE
WILL BE CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. WENT WITH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KEPT THE LAKESHORE
AND NORTHWEST PA OUT OF HEADLINES...IT WILL BE HOT AND THE HEAT
INDEX IN THE UPPER 90S.

OTHERWISE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT NOT
REAL SURE ABOUT THAT. KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN DIDN`T GO ANY
HEAT HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY. DEW POINTS BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE. WE CONTINUE UNDER AN UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL END UP BETWEEN THE INTERACTION OF A MIDWEST COLD
FRONT AND ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HPC HOLDS THE HIGH
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NE OH DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO ORGANIZED BUT WILL MOVE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
SITES. AREA TO WATCH FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NW OH...BUT STILL
UNSURE ABOUT THIS YET. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
SLIPS MOVES INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE
START TO GET SOME RIDGING BUILD IN. SO FOR NOW KEPT TAFS DRY.
LATER FRIDAY ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT SOME AND IT LOOKS QUITE CAPPED
ACROSS THE WEST. SO THERE MIGHT BE A LESSER OF A CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE WITH SOME GUSTS ARE BRIEFLY
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FLOW REVERTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR
FRIDAY SOME BRIEF N FLOW COULD DEVELOP MOST NOTABLY WHEN THE LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF THE DAILY LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT. THIS
N FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING
NE BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST POST FRONTAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS 15KT...BUT NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ011>014-022-
023-033.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>010-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...JAMISON

000
FXUS61 KCLE 051953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST
UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. OF COURSE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE IS OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. WENT WITH THE WARMER READINGS FOR LOWS AS THE
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. ONE MODEL TRY TO BRING SOME CONVECTION IN
FROM NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT BUYING THAT AND
WILL KEEP LATE TONIGHT DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WILL TRY FOR A DRY FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE
WILL BE CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. WENT WITH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KEPT THE LAKESHORE
AND NORTHWEST PA OUT OF HEADLINES...IT WILL BE HOT AND THE HEAT
INDEX IN THE UPPER 90S.

OTHERWISE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT NOT
REAL SURE ABOUT THAT. KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN DIDN`T GO ANY
HEAT HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY. DEW POINTS BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE. WE CONTINUE UNDER AN UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL END UP BETWEEN THE INTERACTION OF A MIDWEST COLD
FRONT AND ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HPC HOLDS THE HIGH
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NE OH DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO ORGANIZED BUT WILL MOVE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
SITES. AREA TO WATCH FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NW OH...BUT STILL
UNSURE ABOUT THIS YET. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
SLIPS MOVES INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE
START TO GET SOME RIDGING BUILD IN. SO FOR NOW KEPT TAFS DRY.
LATER FRIDAY ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT SOME AND IT LOOKS QUITE CAPPED
ACROSS THE WEST. SO THERE MIGHT BE A LESSER OF A CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE WITH SOME GUSTS ARE BRIEFLY
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FLOW REVERTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR
FRIDAY SOME BRIEF N FLOW COULD DEVELOP MOST NOTABLY WHEN THE LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF THE DAILY LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT. THIS
N FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING
NE BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST POST FRONTAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS 15KT...BUT NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ011>014-022-
023-033.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>010-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>008-
017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...JAMISON

000
FXUS61 KCLE 051746
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EARLY AM COMPLEX OF WEATHER HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. THE
NEXT COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NE OH AND NW PA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE COULD BE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THEY HAD PLENTY OF HEATING.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE AREAS WHERE IT WAS CANCELLED MAY STILL HAVE A HEAT
INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PERIODS OF TSRA
AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE ACROSS
AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS NEARLY DRY. FOR FORECAST
JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NE OH DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO ORGANIZED BUT WILL MOVE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
SITES. AREA TO WATCH FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NW OH...BUT STILL
UNSURE ABOUT THIS YET. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
SLIPS MOVES INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE
START TO GET SOME RIDGING BUILD IN. SO FOR NOW KEPT TAFS DRY.
LATER FRIDAY ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT SOME AND IT LOOKS QUITE CAPPED
ACROSS THE WEST. SO THERE MIGHT BE A LESSER OF A CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
DELAYING WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL CROSS THE LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS ARE UNDER 10KT SUSTAINED SO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER
THE LAKE EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES
ARE 2 FT OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>008-
017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...JAMISON

000
FXUS61 KCLE 051635
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1235 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EARLY AM COMPLEX OF WEATHER HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. THE
NEXT COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NE OH AND NW PA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE COULD BE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THEY HAD PLENTY OF HEATING.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE AREAS WHERE IT WAS CANCELLED MAY STILL HAVE A HEAT
INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PERIODS OF TSRA
AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE ACROSS
AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS NEARLY DRY. FOR FORECAST
JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THEN A
BREAK. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE KNOW BETTER.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
DELAYING WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL CROSS THE LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS ARE UNDER 10KT SUSTAINED SO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER
THE LAKE EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES
ARE 2 FT OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>008-
017-018-027-028-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON

000
FXUS61 KCLE 051547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1147 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE WATCH. THE COMPLEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL AWAY
MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THEN IT WILL HEAT
UP AGAIN. WE SHOULD REACH CRITERIA FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY EVEN WITH
THE AM CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES USUALLY HEATS UP QUICKLY. WATCHING
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BECAUSE OF THE
TRACK ADDED AFTERNOON THUNDER TO NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE TSRA AND DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL STILL NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE DID NOT INCLUDE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM CLEVELAND
EAST IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PERIODS OF TSRA
AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE ACROSS
AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS NEARLY DRY. FOR FORECAST
JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THEN A
BREAK. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE KNOW BETTER.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
DELAYING WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL CROSS THE LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS ARE UNDER 10KT SUSTAINED SO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER
THE LAKE EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES
ARE 2 FT OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON

000
FXUS61 KCLE 051333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
932 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE WATCH. THE COMPLEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL AWAY
MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THEN IT WILL HEAT
UP AGAIN. WE SHOULD REACH CRITERIA FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY EVEN WITH
THE AM CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES USUALLY HEATS UP QUICKLY. WATCHING
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BECAUSE OF THE
TRACK ADDED AFTERNOON THUNDER TO NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE TSRA AND DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL STILL NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE DID NOT INCLUDE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM CLEVELAND
EAST IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PERIODS OF TSRA
AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE ACROSS
AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS NEARLY DRY. FOR FORECAST
JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THEN A
BREAK. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE KNOW BETTER.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 051113
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
713 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR THE WATCH AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE TSRA AND DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL STILL NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE DID NOT INCLUDE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM CLEVELAND
EAST IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PERIODS OF TSRA
AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE ACROSS
AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS NEARLY DRY. FOR FORECAST
JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THEN A
BREAK. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE KNOW BETTER.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 050758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE TSRA AND DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL STILL NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE DID NOT INCLUDE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM CLEVELAND
EAST IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PERIODS OF TSRA
AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE ACROSS
AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING PREICP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS NEARLY DRY. FOR FORECAST
JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT IS ANOTHER FORECAST THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND LOCATE
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE ACTIVITY FROM MICHIGAN DROPS SOUTHEAST BUT
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BUT MUCH
OF NE OH/NW PA SHOULD BE DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 050557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAST OF BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NEXT
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN LMIC COULD HOLD
TOGETHER AND REACH THE NW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL
ALLOW POPS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THAT AREA THEN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MOST READINGS IN A
69 TO 74 DEGREE RANGE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WERE
EVENING RAIN HAS COOLED AND MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMPLEX OVER MINNESOTA IS THE BIG QUESTION. IF IT GETS INTO THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS THAT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ENOUGH THAT MAY KEEP NORTHWEST OHIO AWAY FROM HEAT ADVISORY
AND OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. BECAUSE OF THAT...WILL
NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY. THE NORTHEAST AREAS MAY NOT
MEET THE CRITERIA WITH A LITTLE LOWER DEW POINTS TRYING TO MOVE IN
WITH THE BOUNDARY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.

THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT ON FRIDAY IS IFFY BUT THE CHANCE GETS
BETTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS
SEEM GOOD.

WENT WARM FOR THE LOWS AND CLOSE TO THE MOS NAM FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY FAIR...COOLER AND SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON MONDAY SO THERE IS A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY AND THEN
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE GFS IS FASTER IN
EXITING THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
ON MONDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR 14C WHICH WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT IS ANOTHER FORECAST THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND LOCATE
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE ACTIVITY FROM MICHIGAN DROPS SOUTHEAST BUT
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BUT MUCH
OF NE OH/NW PA SHOULD BE DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW
OVER MN DEEPENS INTERACTS WITH HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. WAVES WILL BE AROUND
2 FT GIVE OR TAKE A FOOT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA SINKS SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS WEAK AS THE ONE TO THE SOUTH
BREAKS DOWN. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...WITH N WINDS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 15 KT. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A LAKE BREEZE WHICH CAN
LOCALLY SHIFT WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ABE/JAMISON

Storm Prediction Center Msgs

Storm Prediction Center

Mesoscale Discussion

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1407.html

Issued at 3:27 p.m. EDT after the Cleveland NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lucas County.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1407.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LOWER MI...NW OH AND NE IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051927Z - 052100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE LOWER MI...NW OH AND
NE IND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SERN LOWER MI
LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND
1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM
FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR NW OH AND NE
IND. THIS ALONG WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE. THIS MAY DEPEND UPON WHETHER THE ACTIVITY CAN ACCESS
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
CORES.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42518349 42558415 42378464 42058504 41688525 41368537
40798531 40468494 40318465 40278418 40328383 40448343
40778307 41158290 41638281 42138290 42518349

Convective Outlooks

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120705_1200.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TOWARDS HUDSON
BAY...WITH ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONG WLYS REMAINING N OF THE CONUS.
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E/SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY STALLING
IN NEB AND EVENTUALLY ADVANCING NWD INTO SD BY EARLY FRI.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES MAY CONTINUE TO BE
MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM VARIOUS CLUSTERS EMANATING FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN GREAT
BASIN SHOULD EJECT AROUND THE RIDGE AND REACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THU EVENING.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-MO VALLEY...
AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MIDDLE 50S TO 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE STALLED PORTION OF THE
FRONT...THAT WILL TAKE ON A W/E-ORIENTATION BY AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WITH STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN
WY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ALONG AND
N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
EXPECTED TO EXIST S OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY IN THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL ELYS IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS COULD AID IN A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT
INVOF BLACK HILLS AREA. OTHERWISE...TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE
WITH RISKS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL PERSIST
INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY NW/SE-ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS...AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN A
MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME. BOTH OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE POORLY HANDLED WED EVENING TSTM CLUSTERS...WHICH
BREEDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW DAYTIME ACTIVITY TODAY WILL EVOLVE
WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLUSTERS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND TODAY.

...MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITHIN A
MODERATE TO STRONGLY BUOYANT SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO S/E OF THE EML PLUME OVER THE OH VALLEY AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGEST ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOW.
BUT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 07/05/2012


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120705_1300.html

SPC AC 051236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
ERN WY INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...

EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES CONFINED
TO N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE FLOW
PATTERN...VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITHIN CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY BEFORE TURNING ENEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A NUMBER OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
PERTURBATIONS SOME OF CONVECTIVE ORIGIN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL ROTATE ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH ERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF UPPER HIGH.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY
LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MIGRATORY
LOW TRACKING FROM ERN WY TO CNTRL SD BY 06/12Z. FARTHER E...A
SECOND COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL STALL TODAY WITH
WRN PORTION OF FRONT /WHICH HAS BEEN MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES.

...ERN WY/SERN MT INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA...

STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL ELONGATE FROM NERN CO INTO ERN
WY TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH THE 50S TO LOW 60S INTO SWRN SD AND NERN WY. THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2500
J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA MENTIONED IN SYNOPSIS TO GIVE RISE
TO SCATTERED TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY. WHILE
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. 500-MB
WINDS OF 20-30 KT/...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

GROWING/MERGING COLD POOLS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO
CLUSTERS/MCSS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING
NEWD/EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN SD INTO
SWRN MN/NWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 2500-4000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS
UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY SWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...

NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH INITIATED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER LOWER MI IS
UNDERGOING DECAY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH AS OF 12Z. HOWEVER...SYSTEM
HAS GENERATED A CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM /MCV/ WHICH WILL CONTINUE SWD AROUND
ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO OCCUR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. WHEN COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-3500 J/KG.

MCV AND SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING OH MCS ALONG WITH
A DOWNSTREAM MCV OVER WV /ASSOCIATED WITH AN ALREADY-DECAYED MCS/
ARE EXPECTED TO AUGMENT HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TO FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
REGION. GIVEN HIGH CAPE/PW AIR MASS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...SETUP WILL FAVOR UPSCALE
GROWTH OF STORMS INTO MULTIPLE SWD/SSWWD-PROGRESSING MCSS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

BASED ON MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...REGION WILL RESIDE ON BACKSIDE OF A WEAK IMPULSE
PROGRESSING SEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF
BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF STRONG TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THUS...WHILE A STRONG-EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS /I.E. MLCAPE OF 3000-4500+ J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IMPLIED
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON
STORM DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE. AS SUCH...THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE AREA.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 07/05/2012


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120705_1630.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ERN
WY/SD AREA...

...CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS OF LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL WV
...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS IN OH.
FARTHER S...A SMALL MCV PERSISTS OVER SE WV. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
IS UNDERWAY IN ADVANCE OF THE OUTFLOW AND MCV...WHERE AFTERNOON
MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO THE 2500-4000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW
AND WITH THE MCV...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE MID MS VALLEY UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT SWD MOTION OF
THE INITIAL STORMS IN THE WV AREA...AND A TENDENCY FOR MORE SWWD
MOTION OF THE CLUSTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KY/TN.
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN BASED ON STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...LARGE DCAPE...AND PRECIPITATION LOADING IN THE
ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE BUOYANCY...BUT RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND
INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION.

...SMALL PART OF SE PA/MD THIS AFTERNOON..
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE OH/PA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INTERSECT
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SE PA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING SE OF THIS
WEAK BOUNDARY INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS OF 16Z. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IF STORMS DO FORM IN THIS AREA AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE NRN
PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

...ERN WY/SD AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
WY IN ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT EJECTING NNEWD FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WY...THE
STALLED SURFACE FRONT IN NEB WILL MOVE NWD TO NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER
BY THIS EVENING. A CORRIDOR OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED NEAR AND JUST N OF THE FRONT...AND THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST N OF
THE WARM FRONT...THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS
PRIOR DAYS AS A RESULT OF PRIOR CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
PLATEAU.

RESIDUAL CLOUDS DO COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO ACROSS NRN NEB/SRN
SD...AS WELL AS ERN WY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED SOME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. A FEW STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR AT LEAST
MARGINAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM EXTREME SW SD INTO E/NE WY
WHERE MORE CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...A PRONOUNCED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD/SRN ND...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ON THE SRN
FLANK OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
GUSTS OVERNIGHT.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120705_2000.html

SPC AC 052002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT
RISK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...CINH CONTINUES TO ERODE GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

ADJUSTED WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ON-GOING
OHIO VALLEY SEVERE MCS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TSTMS MAY BE CLOSE TO INITIATING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD INTO MD WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN
ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CINH SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

REMAINDER OF CONUS REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 07/05/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012/

...CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS OF LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL WV
...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS IN OH.
FARTHER S...A SMALL MCV PERSISTS OVER SE WV. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
IS UNDERWAY IN ADVANCE OF THE OUTFLOW AND MCV...WHERE AFTERNOON
MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO THE 2500-4000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW
AND WITH THE MCV...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE MID MS VALLEY UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT SWD MOTION OF
THE INITIAL STORMS IN THE WV AREA...AND A TENDENCY FOR MORE SWWD
MOTION OF THE CLUSTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KY/TN.
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN BASED ON STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...LARGE DCAPE...AND PRECIPITATION LOADING IN THE
ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE BUOYANCY...BUT RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND
INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION.

...SMALL PART OF SE PA/MD THIS AFTERNOON..
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE OH/PA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INTERSECT
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SE PA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING SE OF THIS
WEAK BOUNDARY INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS OF 16Z. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IF STORMS DO FORM IN THIS AREA AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE NRN
PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

...ERN WY/SD AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
WY IN ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT EJECTING NNEWD FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WY...THE
STALLED SURFACE FRONT IN NEB WILL MOVE NWD TO NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER
BY THIS EVENING. A CORRIDOR OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED NEAR AND JUST N OF THE FRONT...AND THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST N OF
THE WARM FRONT...THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS
PRIOR DAYS AS A RESULT OF PRIOR CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
PLATEAU.

RESIDUAL CLOUDS DO COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO ACROSS NRN NEB/SRN
SD...AS WELL AS ERN WY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED SOME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. A FEW STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR AT LEAST
MARGINAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM EXTREME SW SD INTO E/NE WY
WHERE MORE CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...A PRONOUNCED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD/SRN ND...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ON THE SRN
FLANK OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
GUSTS OVERNIGHT.

created by jr on Jul 05, 2012 at 07:54:40 pm
updated by jr on Jul 06, 2012 at 01:29:59 pm
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