Toledo Talk

Severe Weather - 6/12/2013

Blog Post: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=397
Update 1: Added radar image covering High Risk area for today.
Update 2: Added Chat Room Link

LIVE CHAT for TONIGHT
Link: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40

Radar Notes - Red line is High Risk area, Yellow line is Moderate Risk area, Green line is Slight Risk Area.

TWDR TDTW High-Res Radar

IWX Level 3 Radar

SPC Day 1 Outlook - 1630Z Update

Previous Discussions below

Wednesday June 12th could be a fairly active day across the Lower Great Lakes region as warm unstable air will be pushing up from the south. Currently models arenít in all that great of agreement on what will take place, mainly having issues on frontal placement, but it appears a risk of damaging winds and hail will be possible. The tornado threat right now looks low as there are some limiting factors that should keep a more widespread threat mitigated.

12Z NAM Discussion

By late afternoon/early evening a warm front should extend from Northern IL through Southern MI. North of the front will be relatively cool temps in the 60s and 70s, whereas south of the front weíll see temps in the 80s to near 90 in spots. Instability will be fairly high with CAPE values in the 3000-4000 j/kg range. Moisture will be well represented with dewpoints into the upper 60s and low 70s over much of the area.

Forecast soundings show winds will exhibit some areas of speed shear back over IL and then big to develop some directional shear into IN and OH. However, most of the winds will have a westerly component to them and this would aid in more of a fast moving west to east cluster of storms. Moving into the evening, especially over E IN and OH, winds will start to back from the S to SE as a surface low moves up the approaching cold front (from the NW) which could allow storms to being to take on more classic supercell characteristics and rotate. It isnít locked in yet, but it is still worth noting.

KTOL Forecast Sounding @ 11PM Wednesday

NAM Forecast Map with Outlined Risk Area

12Z GFS Discussion

The GFS is holding the warm front a bit further south into Northern IN/OH, but still has similar features such as the NE moving surface low along the approaching cold front. The GFS keeps the storm complex near this surface low moving it up through much of IL, IN and OH. Timing is also a bit slower than NAM, which highlights IL for afternoon/evening, IN for Evening, and MI/OH for overnight into Thursday.

Not much to really add here as they arenít all that different except for placement. Hopefully through the runs later today weíll see them come closer together in agreement on the exact placement of the boundaries. Right now the main threats would be widespread damaging winds, some hail, and a couple tornadoes here are there.

SPC does have a 15% slight risk out for much of this area, more than I highlighted above. They do are discussing the uncertainty surrounding the current models.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS DAY 3...WHILE TROUGHING ALSO PERSISTS OVER ERN CANADA
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BROAD RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THE RIDGE HOWEVER...A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...AND A LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE
SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE MIDWESTERN UPPER SYSTEM.

...THE MIDWEST...
AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITHIN AN
AIRMASS ACQUIRING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER WITH SURFACE FRONTAL EVOLUTION/LOW
POSITION ACROSS THIS AREA...SO DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT IN GENERAL A RELATIVELY BROAD ZONE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT GIVEN MODERATE WLY WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION. ONCE
DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR...MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT MAY
BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA...WHICH WOULD WARRANT
INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN LATER FORECASTS.

created by JustaSooner on Jun 10, 2013 at 12:12:03 pm
updated by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 04:48:41 pm
    Comments: 131

source      versions


Comments ... #

Not much changed in the model run last night, so no need for new graphics.

SPC Day 2 today has pushed it up to a 30% hatched slight risk, one step below going to a moderate, with increased wording on the potential for a widespread damaging wind event.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO
BE SETTING UP FOR DAY 2/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RISK AREA.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF IA/SRN
MN...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR THE NOSE OF A VEERED/REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS -- AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- MAY CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE MORNING TOWARD WI/NRN IL...WHILE THE AIRMASS AWAY
FROM THE ONGOING CLOUDS/CONVECTION HEATS/DESTABILIZES.

BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW PROGGED OVER THE ERN IA VICINITY AND A
WARM FRONT LYING ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA AND INTO OH/WRN PA
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN REDEVELOPING -- BOTH INVOF THE LOW OVER
IA...AND IN A MORE ISOLATED FASHION EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR...GIVEN
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR -- AND THUS A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPSCALE
GROWTH IS EXPECTED HOWEVER -- PARTICULARLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING MCS WHICH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY ESEWD
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. THE BOWING BAND OR
BANDS OF STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD -- REACHING THE
UPPER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE EVENING WITH ONGOING/POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 11, 2013 at 07:48:44 am     #  

At my house, picked up 2.25" of rain in 24 hours...had a storm come through with .75" yesterday evening. Really came down in buckets but nothing severe about it, barely any lightning.

Looks like Wednesday could be interesting.

posted by avinsurer on Jun 11, 2013 at 09:23:17 am     #  

I don't understand a lot of that. Are you saying Toledo is getting tornadoes and large hail, or is that for the western edge of the storm?

posted by Anniecski on Jun 11, 2013 at 09:24:34 am     #  

"Are you saying Toledo is getting tornadoes and large hail, or is that for the western edge of the storm?"

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a risk of severe weather in the lower Great Lakes for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, into early Thursday morning.

Currently, the chance for severe weather in the Toledo area is higher than the normal "Slight Risk." That's why JustaSooner alluded to the possibility of the SPC raising the risk level from Slight to Moderate.

My anecdotal notes about the SPC and Moderate Risks for severe weather.

Naturally with the right conditions, severe thunderstorms have a chance of producing tornadoes and large hail, but that type of forecast will be issued by the SPC early Wednesday morning if not later tonight.

No reason to panic, but the forecast over the past two days is cause for some concern. It's advance notice. A heads-up. Plan accordingly. Enable your weather alarm on your weather radio. Enable weather alerts on your phone. Early Wednesday morning, check the SPC for their latest forecast, or check this thread for details from JustaSooner. Being weather-wise 6 to 18 hours in advance requires little time.

Info about:

And remember, as JustaSooner has pointed out in the past, the Toledo area is covered by three National Weather Service offices. More may sound better, but in this case, it's not.


Related to JustaSooner's above comment, this image from this morning's Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for Wednesday, June 12, 2013 shows the large 30% hatched area for severe weather.

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.


Excerpts from this morning's Area Forecast Discussion issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service, which covers the the counties of Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa.

unfortunately...the weather setup for wed into thu morning has not
changed. combination of forcing from stalled front...surface and
upper low...wind shear and low level jet feeding into the area will
set the stage for convective complexes to develop over the lmic area
and work ese across our cwa. first batch should affect the cwa wed
afternoon and evening then another round looks likely late wed night
into thu as the surface low moves thru. severe threat will be
elevated wed into early thu.


Excerpts from this morning's Area Forecast Discussion issued by the Northern Indiana National Weather Service, which covers northwest Ohio counties, including Fulton and Henry.

main focus of this long term period is on potential high impact
event of wednesday into wednesday night. as we have been discussing
for several days...severe weather and heavy rainfall potential
exists during this period.

convective development late tonight will play significant role in
wednesday morning convection across our area. models showing a
variety of solutions and with no good consensus.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:14:56 am     #  

This set up we are going to have could see multiple, or training storms. It appears the warm front will be just north of us and the storms will most likely ride that track. This is why they are forecasting a chance at heavy rain and potential of flooding. We saw this back in 2005 when we had all of that heavy rain over that few day span. I'm not saying we will have that amount of rain, but we could possibly see a couple of inches dumped in a rather short period of time by multiple complexes of storms.

posted by avinsurer on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:22:05 am     #  

Starting as supercell tstorms, some with rotation/tornadic, possibly training along the line of the front, then a bow echo/derecho forms and sweeps through, if I read this properly.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 11, 2013 at 12:06:16 pm     #  

Early this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center modified their severe weather outlook for Wednesday. A Moderate Risk area was added.


Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 01:47:01 pm     #  

anonymouscoward posted at 12:06:16 PM on Jun 11, 2013:

Starting as supercell tstorms, some with rotation/tornadic, possibly training along the line of the front, then a bow echo/derecho forms and sweeps through, if I read this properly.

I noticed a word in AC's above comment.

Wikipedia : Derecho

I don't think any of the government weather services have included the word "derecho" in tomorrow's forecast. Not yet, anyway.

But sorry, I just checked the media weather, concerning info about tomorrow.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-torcon-index

Wednesday, June 12

Scattered severe thunderstorms, possibly in clusters or even a derecho (widespread damaging wind event associated with a bow echo thunderstorm pattern) in northeast IA, south WI, north half IL, north IN, south MI, OH, southwest PA, north and central WV, MD, DC, north VA.

TOR:CON - 3 north IL, south MI, north OH;


A derecho event rampaged through a portion of Ohio last summer. The worst of the system missed the Toledo area, but the storm system did a lot of damage in many areas of the state, including around Columbus.


July 2, 2012 Columbus Dispatch article titled Weather service pins storm damage on 'derecho'

Hereís a new weather word for you, one you likely will not care to hear again.

Derecho. It refers to the fast-moving wind storm that ravaged Ohio on Friday evening, leaving more than 1 million without power.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio, said the meteorological phenomenon is, thankfully, uncommon.

A derecho is defined as a long-living, widespread band of rapidly moving thunderstorms that includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph and which leaves behind at least 240 miles of wind damage.

The storm that wrecked central Ohioís power grid began in northern Indiana on Friday afternoon and raced through the state and into West Virginia, moving at an average speed of about 75 mph over 450 miles.

The storm spewed out downbursts and microbursts, walls of wind that regularly topped 70 mph and reached hurricane-force strength of 91 mph in Fort Wayne, Ind., and 82 mph at Don Scott Field on the Northwest Side.


Wikipedia : June 2012 North American derecho

The June 2012 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho was one of the most destructive and deadly fast-moving severe thunderstorm complexes in North American history.

The progressive derecho tracked across a large section of the Midwestern United States and across the central Appalachians into the mid-Atlantic states on the afternoon and evening of June 29, 2012, and into the early morning of June 30, 2012.

It resulted in 22 deaths, widespread damage and millions of power outages across the entire affected region.

Images from the above Wikipedia article include an image of the SPC's convective outlook issued on June 29, 2012 for that day.



More from that Wikipedia article about Ohio's damage from that June 29, 2012 storm:

The storm was more damaging to the power grid and more severe in terms of wind gusts than Tropical Storm Ike, which hit the area [Ohio] in September 2008 with 60 mph sustained winds and 80 mph gusts after slightly re-intensifying over Indiana, making [the derecho event] both the largest power outage and the largest power outage not related to a hurricane in AEP Ohio history.

Wind gusts with this derecho were closer to 85 mph, and, though of a significantly shorter duration, caused more damage to trees and power lines than Ike.

In fact, this derecho was so destructive that Accuweather compared its destruction to that of Hurricane Irene, and The Weather Channel compared it to hurricane damage in general.


Toledo Talk thread titled June 29, 2012 Weather created in the mid-afternoon that day.

Radar loop through 2:27 p.m - June 29, 2012

2:37 p.m. radar image - June 29, 2012

3:20 p.m. snapshot of watch box and radar - June 29, 2012 - note how the line is bowing

4:51 p.m. radar snapshot - June 29, 2012 - large bow-shaped line of storms - I believe the super-thin line is the outflow boundary

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 02:53:32 pm     #  

Will post an update tonight around 9ish (10 your time) as the evening models come in. Looks to be a pretty high end event.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 11, 2013 at 06:36:04 pm     #  

Excerpts from Tuesday afternoon's hazardous weather outlook issued by the Cleveland NWS:

the main threats will be strong damaging winds and large hail. however any isolated thunderstorms in the moderate risk area will have the potential of producing a tornado.

there will also be a threat of flooding across the region as low pressure slowly tracks across the region wednesday night. most locations should see around an inch of rainfall with isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. this will cause rises along area creeks and streams and may lead to widespread flooding.

spotter activation may be needed.


Excerpts from Tuesday afternoon's Hydrologic Outlook issued by the Northern Indiana NWS for counties in northwest Ohio (Fulton and Henry):

significant flash flooding and river flooding possible through the end of the week

rainfall totals over the next 48 hours are expected to range from 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 09:33:05 pm     #  

JustaSooner posted at 06:36:04 PM on Jun 11, 2013:

Will post an update tonight around 9ish (10 your time) as the evening models come in. Looks to be a pretty high end event.

I'm wondering if they'll get up to a HIGH risk area and/or issue a PWO tomorrow morning.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:00:28 pm     #  

The SPC issuing a "High Risk" is very rare. I think they may do that only once or twice a year. I believe such a forecast means a major tornado outbreak is likely. JustaSooner would know, but I don't think a High Risk has been issued yet this year.

Mentioned before :

At late morning or mid-day on March 6, 2012, the SPC issued a high risk forecast for parts of southeast IN, western KY, and southwest OH, and later that afternoon and evening, those areas had a tornado outbreak that killed several people. The SPC issued a moderate risk for those area in the early morning, but they upgraded it to a high risk by Noon or early afternoon that day.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:12:52 pm     #  

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html
A SLGT risk implies well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but in small numbers and/or low coverage. A MDT risk indicates a potential for a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms than the slight risk, and in most situations, the storms and associated severe weather are more intense. A HIGH risk area suggests a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with the expectation of either a concentration of strong tornadoes or an enhanced likelihood of a long-lived wind event (derecho) with the potential of higher end wind gusts (80+ mph) and structural damage.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:38:36 pm     #  

anonymouscoward posted at 10:00:28 PM on Jun 11, 2013:
JustaSooner posted at 06:36:04 PM on Jun 11, 2013:

Will post an update tonight around 9ish (10 your time) as the evening models come in. Looks to be a pretty high end event.

I'm wondering if they'll get up to a HIGH risk area and/or issue a PWO tomorrow morning.

PWO's are standard now with nearly every Moderate Risk. They are no longer just for High Risks. Just part of the push to get awareness up. Hopefully people start taking any level of risks more seriously. Down here I know there is a laid back attitude with Slight Risks, until an EF4 tore through the west side of the DFW Metroplex. Risk areas are more about coverage rather pure intensity.

As far as high risks go...the last one was was April 14, 2012 from NE south through OK.

The last Derecho event we had a High Risk for was Oct 26, 2010 which I believe is also the last time there was a High Risk for Western Ohio.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:40:28 pm     #  

The weather radar is active tonight. Mayflies emerge from Lake Erie.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 10:47:18 pm     #  

Excerpts from the 9:25 p.m., June 11, 2013 Area Forecast Discussion issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service:

enjoy the fair weather while it lasts because here comes trouble. the next storm system is on the way and will bring multiple threats to the forecast area.

the problem lies with the surface warm front expected to move northeast across the forecast area and become nearly stationary.

this sets up a boundary for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in which the threat for hail and damaging winds. cant rule out the possibility for tornadoes with the close proximity to the stationary front and shear potential.

very moist tropical air out of the gulf of mexico will help to feed this system as it moves into the region.

the next threat will be the potential for very heavy rain expected wednesday night into thursday morning as low pressure moves along the stationary front. precipitable water values approach 1.8 inches wednesday night in the tropical air mass.

efficient rain producing thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain. the potential exists for flooding and flash flooding wednesday night.


From the hydrology section of the same forecast discussion:

the flood threat will increase wednesday into thursday morning.

precipitable water values will rise to around 1.6-1.8" and with storm forward speeds expected to slow into the overnight hours...there is a high threat of training storms with heavy rain.

weather prediction center has 2 to 4 inches of rainfall forecast over most of the area between wednesday and thursday. the heaviest rain will fall after 8 pm wednesday through 8 am thursday.

high rainfall rates on already wet ground will support the development of flash floods. all rivers are at risk for flooding with the potential for major flooding.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 11:24:29 pm     #  

jr posted at 11:24:29 PM on Jun 11, 2013:

Excerpts from the 9:25 p.m., June 11, 2013 Area Forecast Discussion issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service:

enjoy the fair weather while it lasts because here comes trouble. the next storm system is on the way and will bring multiple threats to the forecast area.

the problem lies with the surface warm front expected to move northeast across the forecast area and become nearly stationary.

this sets up a boundary for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in which the threat for hail and damaging winds. cant rule out the possibility for tornadoes with the close proximity to the stationary front and shear potential.

very moist tropical air out of the gulf of mexico will help to feed this system as it moves into the region.

the next threat will be the potential for very heavy rain expected wednesday night into thursday morning as low pressure moves along the stationary front. precipitable water values approach 1.8 inches wednesday night in the tropical air mass.

efficient rain producing thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain. the potential exists for flooding and flash flooding wednesday night.


From the hydrology section of the same forecast discussion:

the flood threat will increase wednesday into thursday morning.

precipitable water values will rise to around 1.6-1.8" and with storm forward speeds expected to slow into the overnight hours...there is a high threat of training storms with heavy rain.

weather prediction center has 2 to 4 inches of rainfall forecast over most of the area between wednesday and thursday. the heaviest rain will fall after 8 pm wednesday through 8 am thursday.

high rainfall rates on already wet ground will support the development of flash floods. all rivers are at risk for flooding with the potential for major flooding.

Well I certainly hope the city bothers to pay attention and get the pumps pre-stationed at the flood-prone areas tomorrow.

Wait, Toledo preparing for something? I must be dreaming.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 11, 2013 at 11:40:40 pm     #  

One other bit of info from the above 9:25 p.m. June 11, 2013 area forecast discussion:

nose of the next jet maximum and another weak shot of positive vorticity advection will push into the western portions of the forecast area and could also be a focus for new convection to develop in the morning [Wednesday].

the big question is how much will this activity aid in squashing any threat for severe weather during the day tomorrow.

posted by jr on Jun 11, 2013 at 11:43:37 pm     #  

jr posted at 11:43:37 PM on Jun 11, 2013:

One other bit of info from the above 9:25 p.m. June 11, 2013 area forecast discussion:

nose of the next jet maximum and another weak shot of positive vorticity advection will push into the western portions of the forecast area and could also be a focus for new convection to develop in the morning [Wednesday].

the big question is how much will this activity aid in squashing any threat for severe weather during the day tomorrow.

Yeah, if that saps energy out of the atmosphere, good. If we just get some rain showers and then the sun comes out in full force, we could be boned. I don't know the exact thermodynamics but also since wet pavement and such is darker, that could allow for MORE heating at ground level thus pushing more energy into the system. It does take energy to evaporate the water but then it gives up energy condensing back into liquid water.... Depends on timing.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 11, 2013 at 11:51:32 pm     #  

Overall previous forecast still on track for a classic high end derecho event. That isn't going to be the only hazard. As outlined by the local WFOs flooding is going to be a significant issue and there is going to be a tornado threat as well. So step by step.

Challenges with the forecast - Not really many. Moisture is in place, boundaries are all going to be pretty well established, and the surface low moving along the boundaries will provide a focal point for heaviest rain. The other main thing to keep in my is that a derecho event can be much more destructive than a tornado simply because it impacts a much wider area with damaging winds.

Surface Map 8PM tomorrow per 00Z NAM...

First Wave of precip will start by mid afternoon along the warm front in Southern MI and through much of Ohio. This activity will be well ahead of the main MCS that is expected to form out west. Looking at the amount of instability that will be near and south of the boundary, severe weather should be expected - and all modes at that. We also could see a tornado threat in Lower Michigan for cells ahead of the warm front or rooted in the boundary.

Highest risk area is south of the Warm Front for initial supercell threat. Hail to 2 inches, tornadoes, and damaging winds are going to be most likely in West Central/Central Ohio. Threat will increase after dark in this area as winds back with the approaching surface low. This will also help to feed the inflow for the developing MCS that will march over the area.

Main upper level energy works in after dark as well, this should help increase the damaging wind threat. Tornado threat will be limited to storms ahead of the main cluster except for possible comma head, tail end charlie, or embedded quick spin ups. Hail threat will drop a good amount too.

NAM and GFS are pulling the MCS and heaviest precip through Northern IN, Southern MI and NW through SE OH. We'll have to see how this actually develops. I always play with the general rule of thumb that models are great to say "yes it will happen" and not "this is exactly where it will be."

With all that said, review precautions now and just think ahead. Do you have items that are exposed to strong western winds and can blow away? Be sure to get items secured.

The MCS will likely be moving at 35-55 mph in an East to Southeastward path. Initial cells will be moving mostly E to ESE at around 25-30 mph.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 12:07:40 am     #  

anonymouscoward posted at 11:51:32 PM on Jun 11, 2013:
jr posted at 11:43:37 PM on Jun 11, 2013:

One other bit of info from the above 9:25 p.m. June 11, 2013 area forecast discussion:

nose of the next jet maximum and another weak shot of positive vorticity advection will push into the western portions of the forecast area and could also be a focus for new convection to develop in the morning [Wednesday].

the big question is how much will this activity aid in squashing any threat for severe weather during the day tomorrow.

Yeah, if that saps energy out of the atmosphere, good. If we just get some rain showers and then the sun comes out in full force, we could be boned. I don't know the exact thermodynamics but also since wet pavement and such is darker, that could allow for MORE heating at ground level thus pushing more energy into the system. It does take energy to evaporate the water but then it gives up energy condensing back into liquid water.... Depends on timing.

Honestly, I don't really expect that to happen. There is just a lot of upper level energy coming in that a few showers in the morning really won't mean much. The key is where the warm front setups up to help determine where the MCS is going to march.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 12:13:23 am     #  

JustaSooner, thanks for the excellent analysys.

  • Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.
    • 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rain is forecast.
  • Latest SPC Convective Outlook states:
    • models indicate the main corridor for widespread damage will be from northern Illinois into northern and central Indiana and into Ohio.
  • Public Severe Weather Outlook issued by the SPC at 5:02 a.m. EDT:
    • this afternoon in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, conditions likely will become conducive to the evolution of a large and organized cluster of storms.
    • activity is then expected to spread rapidly east southeastward across southern portions of the great lakes region.
    • a few tornadoes are also possible, particularly with early storms across parts of eastern iowa into northern illinois.
    • state and local emergency managers are monitoring this developing situation.
    • those in the threatened area are urged to review severe weather safety rules.
  • Area Weather Discussion issued by the Cleveland NWS at 3:18 a.m. EDT:
    • ingredients are still looking to come together today into tonight for strong to severe storms to spread across the area.
    • this looks to be one of the best setups for a convective complex to work across the cwa that we've seen in a while.
    • not saying there will be a derecho but the possibility is there.
    • track of the core of the convection has been consistent for several days
    • a high threat of training storms with heavy rain.
    • heaviest rain will fall after 8 pm wednesday through 8 am thursday

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 05:49:24 am     #  

SPC Convective Outlook for today:

Severe Thunderstorm Risk - yellow = Slight and red = Moderate
enlarge


Tornado Risk - (10% for Toledo area) - Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point
enlarge


Wind Risk - (30% for Toledo area - magenta area is 45%) - Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
enlarge


Hail Risk - (30% for Toledo area) - Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
enlarge

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 07:36:48 am     #  

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 07:50:30 am     #  

Excerpts from the 7:45 a.m. Area Forecast Discussion issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service:

latest short term model runs all over the place with qpf thru mid afternoon so not confident in any of this new information.

many models indicate the showers and thunderstorms won`t get going until after dark while the hrrr and the ruc/rap starts the showers and thunderstorms after 21z (5:00 p.m. EDT).

on the edge about that...tried to lean toward the most significant showers and thunderstorms occurring during the overnight hours as the surface low moves along the boundary. it should be several waves of precipitation.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:15:00 am     #  

At 8:20 a.m. EDT, the SPC issued a new convective outlook.

Regarding the Toledo area, some aspects have been downgraded slightly while others have been upgraded slightly.

Compare to the 2:16 a.m. SPC outlook.

Excerpts from the 8:20 a.m. SPC outlook:

based largely on the spc storm-scale ensemble data...highest severe probabilities and the most significant severe weather potential...still appear focused in a corridor across east central iowa into northern illinois late this afternoon and evening...into northern indiana and western ohio later tonight.

in the presence of strong shear and instability...discrete supercell storms may occur initially...before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one or more organized convective clusters.


Severe Weather Risk
enlarge


Tornado - Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
enlarge


Wind - Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
enlarge


Hail - Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
enlarge

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:00:05 am     #  

The latest Day 1 Outlook moved the MDT area northward to apparently encompass the Toledo area....

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:05:19 am     #  

Is it just me and my rudimentary understanding or do the hodographs for 9-18 hours out in the RUC and NAM look really... interesting, in terms of wind shear and direction? They look like some of that hockey-stick or sickle shaped profile...

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:29:54 am     #  

One of the key traps to avoid falling into is focusing on the exact borders of the outlook products. Moderate risk was cutting through Wood County earlier, now it is up to the MI line - which really doesn't mean much except drawing a cleaning line. A significant storm isn't going to go to the MI line and be like "I need to turn around now." :)

As far as issues with short term models, HRRR tends to have a very good track record but in the morning it can be a little funny. Usually by late morning it sorts itself out.

Currently this is the 10PM forecast...

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:53:20 am     #  

anonymouscoward posted at 09:29:54 AM on Jun 12, 2013:

Is it just me and my rudimentary understanding or do the hodographs for 9-18 hours out in the RUC and NAM look really... interesting, in terms of wind shear and direction? They look like some of that hockey-stick or sickle shaped profile...

It definitely isn't very clean. The wind profiles are pretty good if you are looking for the rotating storms, but there isn't enough of a gradual increase in wind speed as you go up. The relatively light winds at the surface aren't going to stand up to 50 kts at 25k feet and up. Combined with pure W wind from 10k feet up.

Still, it still highlights the an environment that would favor right turning/splitting supercells...but it isn't going to be easy.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 10:07:38 am     #  

12Z NAM Update...

It is slightly more north this morning. Still breaking out precip in Western OH by late afternoon. Surface low track is going to be pretty much down the I-80/90 corridor.

Highest tornado threat through earlier this evening will be with any initial convection, with the best chance for strong tornadoes back from the Chicago/Rockford area SW towards St. Louis. Tornado risk will be there from the Southern two tiers of counties in MI through much of IN and W & C OH. Conditions improve for tornadoes going through late evening if any storms can remain discrete.

12Z HRRR is slowly coming in now as well...some initial crapvection over Southern MI and Northern OH through early afternoon. Supercell development in Northern IN back through NE IA starts by mid afternoon....so metro Toledo area looking at probably the 6 to 8PM time frame from the first significant batch to kick off.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 10:15:10 am     #  

10:00 a.m. Area Forecast Discussion :

  • severe weather threat is still likely with wind...hail and possibly tornadoes being the threats for this afternoon into tonight.
  • debris clouds moving east into the forecast area this morning.
  • we should have a fair amount of sunshine return this afternoon to help with convective initiation for the afternoon into the evening hours.
  • it looks like the brunt of the storms will develop and affect the area late this afternoon into the evening hours.
  • best upper level positive vorticity advection and vorticity maximum scoots across lake erie around 21z (5:00 p.m. EDT) this afternoon.
  • and then the next more potent upper level vorticity maximum arrives late this evening into tonight.
  • precipitable water values are now approaching 2 inches.
  • significant rainfall is expected...especially in training thunderstorms.
  • Flood Watch remains in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through thursday afternoon.
  • much of the area should see an inch and a half to 3 inches of rainfall from this system.
  • the heaviest rain will fall after 8 pm wednesday through 8 am
    thursday.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:35:00 am     #  

Upgrade to High Risk incoming...

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:37:50 am     #  

The text...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 121526Z - 121630Z

SUMMARY...THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EXTREME
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OHIO. IN ADDITION...TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL
BE INCREASED TO 15 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA
INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FAST-MOVING AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 06/12/2013

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:39:34 am     #  

Folks are flying in from Florida tomorrow night, so glad this will be over by then....if we survive! :)

posted by nana on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:44:52 am     #  

As someone may ask...all watches in the high risk today will be PDS watches. So we'll see our first PDS Severe in probably 2 years. Though we very well could see an initial tornado watch box go out for the early convection and then get replaced by a PDS Severe box.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:50:04 am     #  

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 12:35:34 pm     #  

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

*...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...*

*...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM EASTERN IOWA TO WESTERN OHIO...*

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST TO EAST COAST AND PARTS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT AND A PART OF
NERN WY...

...SYNOPSIS...
*A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COINCIDENT WITH A COMPACT AND INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS AS WELL
AS SCATTERED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES.*

...ERN IA/NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SRN
WI AND SWRN LOWER MI...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS HAVE CONGEALED AHEAD OF A
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID
LEVEL WLY FLOW CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AN
EXPANSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXISTS AHEAD OF THE UPPER FORCING AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S F AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST FROM IA EAST ACROSS IL/IND/OH. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THIS SAME REGION INDICATE A PRONOUNCED EML ADVECTING EAST FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM.

DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DEGREE OF
HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDING SURFACE CYCLONE
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL PROVE ADEQUATE
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL MAY PRECEDE TRULY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN IA ACROSS SRN WI TO LOWER
MI. GIVEN DEGREE OF CAPPING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT
POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG STORM-RELATIVELY HELICITY /SRH/. ANY
CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 35-55KT. POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED
DURING THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT PHASE /21Z-00Z/ NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AMIDST HIGH INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.

ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE RIPPLING EAST
ALONG THE WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...IN CONCERT WITH 50-60KT
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO/ACROSS THE
DEVELOPING MASS OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS UPSCALE PROGRESSIVE MCS
/POSSIBLE DERECHO/ EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING...AND DEPICTION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A NUMBER OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS
SHOWING MCS/DERECHO EVOLUTION WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WRF-ARW SIMULATION FROM 00Z TAKES THE APEX OF THE
PROGRESSIVE MCS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT IN UNDER 6 HOURS WITH A
FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 40KT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN AND
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH HIGH WINDS
POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AS WELL A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL
LINE/QLCS.

...OH EAST TO EAST COAST/SOUTHEAST...
WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALSO EXISTS WELL EAST OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ACROSS FROM OH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO EAST COAST. SOME
MODEL SIMULATIONS DEPICT THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING FROM INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN
SUBTLE/WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW
HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THESE PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 12:41:11 pm     #  

Latest update...

Storm initiation in the main risk area should start about 3PM CT / 4 PM CT in NW IL and SW MI. Probably see an initial tornado watch for these areas.

By 6PM ET / 5PM CT - Severe storms on going in Northern IL and S WI. Isolated severe storms over N IN and NW OH.

By 8PM / 7PM CT - Storms previously over NW OH will move into Central OH. Additional storms over N IN and NW OH will be on going as well with a severe threat. Severe storms continue over NE IL, SW MI, and S WI.

By 10 PM / 9PM CT - Scattered showers ans storms from NE IN to SE MI to N OH into SE OH. Some severe weather with these, but threat should be down slightly. Derecho/MCS is setting up on the East shore of Lake Michigan in SW MI and NW IN.

By 12AM / 11 PM CT - MCD moves into South Central MI and extreme NW OH. Destructive winds will be likely with this complex and could approach 80-90 mph in spots. Tornado risk will be lower, but you can get embedded circulations with quick spin ups on the leading edge of the MCS and also in the Comma Head area of it.

Main MCS impact in the I-75 corridor should be around 1AM and will start to move out of the area by 2PM.

Keep in mind everything is subject to change based on how storms evolve, but this is a good idea on what it looks like now. Just be prepared to take safety precautions as storms approach.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 02:19:06 pm     #  

2:00 p.m. Toledo airport temps at Express and Metcalf are 79 and 80 degrees. The sky has been cloudy for much of the day in Toledo.

But it's a bit moist outside. 2:00 p.m. dew point temps at the Toledo airports are 64 and 63 degrees, respectively.

12:44 pm area forecast discussion from the Cleveland NWS:

  • temperatures continue to surge upward as breaks in the overcast allow for heating to take place.
  • dew point temperatures are also climbing with expected surface values in the lower 70s west by late this afternoon.
  • shaping up to be a very moist environment to feed the convection along with any interactions with the stationary front.
  • significant rainfall totals still appear likely across the area.
  • high risk severe weather remains west of the forecast area but our western portions remain in the moderate risk.
  • bottom line is that significant weather can be expected this evening into tonight with severe threats still being high winds and hail.
  • still cant rule out tornadoes as a threat as well as surface low pressure moves east across the region.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 02:33:13 pm     #  

No major changes to the Day 1 outlook. Storm development on going in NW IL through NE IA.

Significant destabilization over Northern Indiana right now. Mostly clear skies and CAPE values exceeding 4500 j/kg. CIN is still present so that will hold any storm development off a bit longer.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 04:10:38 pm     #  

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN IL...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...SWRN
LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 122038Z - 122215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A PDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 22Z.
TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN IA...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL ARE EXPECTED
TO CONGEAL INTO AN ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MOVE ESE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS...ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX/QLCS TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NERN IA/SRN WI/NWRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES ESE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO NERN IL...NRN IND AND NWRN OH. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL FURTHER AID IN
UPSCALE GROWTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE
AROUND A GROWING COLD POOL AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS LIKELY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SOME IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS...WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED QLCS/MESOVORTEX TORNADOES.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 06/12/2013

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 04:40:59 pm     #  

As things get going, I've opening up the chat room on my weather site for tonight: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40

First tornado warned storm now West of Chicago.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 04:48:08 pm     #  

PDS Severe is out...

OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN
CLARK CRAWFORD DARKE
DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HENRY
HURON LOGAN LUCAS
MARION MERCER MIAMI
OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM
SANDUSKY SENECA SHELBY
UNION VAN WERT WILLIAMS
WOOD WYANDOT

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 05:02:00 pm     #  

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM
400 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF FINDLAY
OHIO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
A COMPACT BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS ON A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING
CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EXISTS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW MORE HOURS OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IN WATCH 298.
EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION WITH
ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE DERECHO OR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THIS TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY EVENING.
PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE GREATEST WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 300. WITH
TIME...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MCS RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MI/NORTHERN IND...AND INTO NORTHWEST
OH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 05:12:44 pm     #  

AC reports for spotter activation

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 05:30:22 pm     #  

CLE forecast discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
521 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE WATCH. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING IN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE...IT TOO COULD BECOME
SEVERE. THIS IS A PDS WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS
BACKS THIS UP WITH DRY AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPES
OVER 1000K/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST FORWARD PROPAGATION
ADDING TO WIND POTENTIAL. ROTATING SUPERCELLS ALSO SUPPORTED SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS...THE WAITING GAME BEGINS. SO FAR ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE WELL CAPPED AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND IS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND. WE NEVER CLEARED OUT OR HAD ANY BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST AS EXPECTED AND THIS IS ALSO LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE REGION.

COORDINATED WITH COFORECASTER...IT APPEARS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
HAS SET UP BACK OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE LOCATION THE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THIS AREA AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVERNIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SURGE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING.

THE SURGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AND COULD POSSIBLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POTENTIAL FLOODING
THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND AREAS COULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL
PONDING OF WATER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RAPID RISES OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH TO THE LAKE SHORE AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND UPPER
60S IN THE NORTH.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 05:51:52 pm     #  

Cell developing in Crawford County may need to be watched for some hail. Another area to watch will be in Wood County from Grand Rapids over to Weston. Just some heavy rain right now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 06:00:17 pm     #  

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • TORNADO WARNING FOR...
    NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...
    SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...
    NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...
    SOUTHEASTERN SENECA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
  • UNTIL 715 PM EDT
  • AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
    STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHATFIELD...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF BUCYRUS...
    AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 06:31:07 pm     #  

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 630 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MANSFIELD OHIO TO 25 MILES EAST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...WW 300...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL OH ALONG A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH THE EVENING. 21Z ILN SOUNDING VERIFIED VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 06:48:38 pm     #  

Hey Soonie, you got a key for the markings on the IWX Level 3?

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 06:55:31 pm     #  

anonymouscoward posted at 06:55:31 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

Hey Soonie, you got a key for the markings on the IWX Level 3?

I'm going to take the lines off in a minute since we know the SPC outlook well.

The red boxes = SVR warnings.
Magenta boxes = TOR warnings
Aqua boxes = Marine advisories.
Green boxes = Flood warnings.

The green triangles are hail indicators from the NWS algorithms. They'll increase in size and show a number based on inch size.

Cricles with arrows mesocyclone indication. Upside down triangle would be a TVS and changes color based on intensity.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 07:02:05 pm     #  

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...SE WI...SRN LOWER MI...IND...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300...

VALID 122256Z - 130030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 300 IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS..TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS A BOWING
LINE-SEGMENT ORGANIZES THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER FAR
ERN IA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL..NRN
IND AND NW OH WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 70S
F. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S F IS
RESULTING IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE MCS OVER NE IL IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
BOWING LINE SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. IN ADDITION
TO WIND DAMAGE...SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE SHOULD ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE
WILL ALSO HAVE A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. *THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS COULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.*

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/12/2013

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 07:04:06 pm     #  

Cell between Kenton and Marion in Central OH is close to going severe now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 07:38:24 pm     #  

Zoomed out look of what all we have going on right now...

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 07:47:53 pm     #  

Strongest cell right now closest to the OH border is the one SE of Angola, IN. This cell is moving due east right south of the Turnpike.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:02:06 pm     #  

3D look at what's moving into NW OH.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:07:12 pm     #  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
    WILLIAMS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
  • UNTIL 915 PM EDT
  • AT 818 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDON...AND
    MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:23:57 pm     #  

You got any way to pipe a continuing update of any more Level2/3?

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:25:01 pm     #  

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:25:52 pm     #  

Our calm evening will be ending soon.

The first batch or cluster of Ohio storms formed late this afternoon in north central Ohio.

But a stunning amount of activity exists to the west. You can see the "training" situation in place as these storms are moving mainly to the east and slightly southeast.

Some places in Ohio may get hit by 4 to 6 different storms, at least, over the next several hours, especially north central Ohio.



Warnings that were up as of 8:28 p.m. EDT for at least part of the counties that are filled in.
blue = severe thunderstorm warning
red = tornado warning
green = flood warning

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:33:18 pm     #  

Williams County storm is going to have a north split break off soon. Hail with both cells. Typically higher tornado risk with the southern/right moving cell. Bryan needs to have a heads up until it passes. Area of rotation is about 3.7 miles to the SW of Montpelier.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:38:31 pm     #  

Williams County storm has completed the split. Hail size is increasing on the south storm near Bryan. Decent inflow into it and a alright hook. Rotation is still modest, but it is there. This could be TOR warned as conditions continue to get more favorable.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:46:40 pm     #  

Sooner, I'm in Napoleon. Think the southern split of that thing's gonna head this far south?

posted by kaj on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:48:07 pm     #  

kaj posted at 08:48:07 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

Sooner, I'm in Napoleon. Think the southern split of that thing's gonna head this far south?

Have to watch it. If it takes a hard right like they sometimes do, it could very well track down that way. Right now it is holding its own going due east.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:50:57 pm     #  

Sooner and jr, thanks for the updates. This is the first place I check anymore. WTOL11 is reaching the point of being annoying and ridiculous.

posted by hunkytownsausage on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:56:15 pm     #   3 people liked this

hunkytownsausage posted at 08:56:15 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

Sooner and jr, thanks for the updates. This is the first place I check anymore. WTOL11 is reaching the point of being annoying and ridiculous.

What? Don't care for Certified Stamped Written Publish Most Best Top of the Line Awesomest Accurate Right Correct? :) Don't even get me starting and their imitation radar beams that are just for show.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:57:52 pm     #   1 person liked this

JustaSooner posted at 08:46:40 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

Williams County storm has completed the split. Hail size is increasing on the south storm near Bryan. Decent inflow into it and a alright hook. Rotation is still modest, but it is there. This could be TOR warned as conditions continue to get more favorable.

Yup that looks really hook echoy!

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:59:43 pm     #  

High Risk downgraded to Moderate because storm mode has not yet completely moved over to an MCS and instead has stayed more discrete supercells. Tornado risk has been increased through Northwest Ohio to accommodate this.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 08:59:52 pm     #  

Tornado warned now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:01:42 pm     #  

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:03:02 pm     #  

So far nothing all that exciting with the storm. Still has modest rotation and a hook, but pretty meh. Could still get a quick spin up out of it unless it gets its act together.

Side note I'm watching live streams of 11 and 13 and I'm in pain at how amateur they are. LOL Ah well. That's what TT is for. :)

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:20:34 pm     #   1 person liked this

JustaSooner...much rather read your updates than listen to anything on TV...thanks!

posted by MaggieThurber on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:23:55 pm     #  

I miss Stan Stachak. He didn't like to talk just to hear himself talk and take up airtime. It was "this is where it is, this is where it's going, now take cover."

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:25:38 pm     #  

Updated radar image. Had to turn smoothing on because these storms are just in a bad area for radar coverage - pretty much a dead spot that NWS needs to address.

Nothing all that impressive with the storm at all right now. No spotters out there to really get any ground verification.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:27:37 pm     #  

anonymouscoward posted at 09:25:38 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

I miss Stan Stachak. He didn't like to talk just to hear himself talk and take up airtime. It was "this is where it is, this is where it's going, now take cover."

The tornado precaution message they give really needs work. It isn't complicated.

Safe room or basement is best. If you go in a basement, don't get in an area where heavy objects above you could fall. Don't have those, lowest level - center part of the building. Put as many walls between you and the outside. Bathroom or closet in the center part is great. Cover up with pillows, blankets, and also helmet especially for the kids.

As it stands...the TOR warned cell continues to weaken and the warning is getting dropped right now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:32:24 pm     #  

Does current radar indicate that the storms in northern Indiana and northeast Illinois could slide to the south of Toledo, affecting areas like Findlay to Lima more so than Toledo?

Is it possible that the biggest threat for Toledo is the batch of storms currently over southern Lake Michigan?

Also, are the storms in northern Indiana and northeastern Illinois weaker now compared to a couple hours ago?

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:33:36 pm     #  

Local Skywarn just brought the net up. Condition green at the moment.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:34:46 pm     #  

rain shower in Perrysburg

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:39:41 pm     #  

jr posted at 09:33:36 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

Does current radar indicate that the storms in northern Indiana and northeast Illinois could slide to the south of Toledo, affecting areas like Findlay to Lima more so than Toledo?

Is it possible that the biggest threat for Toledo is the batch of storms currently over southern Lake Michigan?

Also, are the storms in northern Indiana and northeastern Illinois weaker now compared to a couple hours ago?

There is definitely a southward trend with the storms coming out of IL right now. Those in Northern IN are still pushing mostly east. The MCS over Lake Michigan will probably move ESE a bit and could very well turn more SE once it makes landfall again.

Looking at the Joliet, IL (Chicago) radar...winds are coming up quickly in NW IN and also over Lake Michigan. Reflectivity values may come down a bit as the hail threat decreases but wind threat does appear to be going up right now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 09:42:28 pm     #  

A short time ago, no tornado warnings were in effect for Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, but a new tornado warning was just issued for Knox County in central Ohio.

Parts of north central Ohio have been getting pounded by multiple storms since late this evening.

And with the way the storms in northern Indiana are displayed on radar, those same areas in north central Ohio could get hit a lot more.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 10:00:47 pm     #  

Will have to verify later, but it seems that the area of Ohio that has been receiving the brunt of this weather resides north of I-70 and south of Route 224. A new tornado warning has been issued for the Mansfield area.

10:05 p.m. radar snapshot. The areas in north central Ohio lit up on radar got hit once or twice earlier. The activity in northern Indiana could be headed their way too.


Warnings as of 10:13 p.m. EDT

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 10:19:26 pm     #  

SPC mesoscale discussion issued at 9:47 p.m. EDT

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 10:26:29 pm     #  

Warnings map as of 10:47 p.m. EDT.

It seems like the warnings map has looked like this all evening, including the gap in the Toledo area. We have been fortunate. It's good karma from Opal Covey.

Toledo should get an extended period of light to moderate rain.

Activity in western Michigan, northern Illinois, and southeast Wisconsin could threaten Toledo early Thursday morning.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 10:51:08 pm     #  

Three main clusters on going one right.

1) Michigan cluster from near Kalamazoo north to Grand Rapids over to Lansing. Most cells are severe warned and one cell is now TOR warned SW of Hastings, MI. The complex is setup like an "L" on its side. The western side is moving mostly East, and the northern line is slidling slowly ESE.

2) Primary MCS from near Bryan SW to Fort Wayne to Lafayette, IN. We are starting to see the Central part of this complex accelerate and move SE at 50 mph with damaging winds over 70 mph. The stronger cells continue to back build fo the NE, and could clip the Toledo metro area.

3) Cluster NW of Chicago continues to pulse up and could form another line of marginally severe storms as it slides SE.

Outside of these clusters we have continued discrete supercells over Central and Eastern Ohio with a couple of them tornado warned.

Main impacts on the Toledo area are going to depend how far south the Northern complex moves and how far NE the southern complex back builds.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:05:57 pm     #  

"We are starting to see the Central part of this complex accelerate and move SE at 50 mph with damaging winds over 70 mph"

Are you saying that the line of storms in Indiana is starting to bow?

It seems that the east end of that line that is now in western Ohio is moving a bit to the northeast while the middle part of that line in north central Indiana is moving southeast.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:11:06 pm     #  

What about that cell in Defiance-Paulding county area? It seems to have broken away from the line and is moving northeast.

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:15:25 pm     #  

JR - Yeah, starting to see some indications it wants to bow out north of Muncie. There is some pretty high winds in the upper levels that are starting to translate down.

Defiance-Paulding back up to Williams County has been holding its out pretty well. This area just got severe warned for high winds. Seeing a bow in the winds just east of the city of Paulding. Still seeing some inflow into the storms from Paulding up to Defiance and near Napoleon. Sometimes we see "comma head" features develop in these large complexes, and that could be setting up there. A decently strong mesolow will stup in there which can make the region favorable for high winds and quick spin up tornadoes.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:32:40 pm     #  

Latest velocity image showing rotation near Napoleon and the strong outflow winds near Continental.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:43:59 pm     #  

Just when it seemed like it was okay to relax, that line of storms in Indiana has changed dramatically very quickly.

That line of Indiana storms was lined up west to east, but over the past 30 to 60 minutes or so, it has changed shape, possibly bowing.

The eastern edge of that line has started moving to the northeast. The Toledo area could see some storm activity when not long ago, it seemed like this would miss us.

The SPC has issued a new mesoscale discussion at 11:22 p.m. EDT.


Radar image at 10:02 p.m. EDT


Radar image at 10:45 p.m. EDT


Radar image at 11:28 p.m. EDT


Radar image at 11:38 p.m. EDT

posted by jr on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:44:22 pm     #  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
    WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
  • UNTIL 100 AM EDT
  • AT 1150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE
    LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF CUSTAR TO 18
    MILES WEST OF RAWSON TO 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAWSON...AND MOVING
    EAST AT 30 MPH.
  • LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    CUSTAR...
    BOWLING GREEN...
    FINDLAY...
    WESTON...
    RAWSON...
    MCCOMB...
    VAN BUREN...
    NORTH BALTIMORE...

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:54:34 pm     #  

Some pretty excessive winds, not all have translated down to the surface yet.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:59:19 pm     #  

Some pretty excessive winds, not all have translated down to the surface yet.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 12, 2013 at 11:59:19 pm     #  

Ack, sorry about that double post. Not sure what caused that. The blue area is maxing out at 93.2 kts or nearly 110 mph. This is 6000 feet up though, so that would normally mean 60-70 mph on the surface...at least.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:01:25 am     #  

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST INDIANA
EXTREME NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
WESTERN MARYLAND
MUCH OF OHIO
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1150
PM UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF LATROBE PENNSYLVANIA TO 25 MILES WEST OF DAYTON
OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 300...WW 301...

DISCUSSION...A LARGE BOW ECHO HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
IND/OH BORDER AND IS RACING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 45-50 KT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE /DERECHO/ ACROSS CENTRAL OH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SURROUNDING THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH 10Z. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOW...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:07:38 am     #  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • TORNADO WARNING FOR...
    EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    CENTRAL WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
  • UNTIL 115 AM EDT
  • AT 1207 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
    STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUSTAR...AND MOVING EAST AT
    55 MPH.
  • LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    CUSTAR...BOWLING GREEN...WESTON...GRAND RAPIDS...MILTON CENTER...
    TONTOGANY...HASKINS...CYGNET...PORTAGE...JERRY CITY...WEST
    MILLGROVE...WAYNE...LUCKEY...PEMBERVILLE...BRADNER AND RISINGSUN.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:11:14 am     #  

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:13:32 am     #  

An amazing change in these storms over the past two hours.

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:16:03 am     #  

Classic comma head situation going on now. Expect this to continue for awhile more than likely.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:22:02 am     #  

At 12:10 a.m., storm spotters observed a tornado near Custar.

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:25:13 am     #  

Some areas in the comma head in Lucas County could be seeing some scattered areas of rotation with just a lot of motion in the developing meso low.

Farther south is going to be the initial warned around, but to me that seems to be more outflow winds.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:26:06 am     #  

skywarn report from a man who was relaying info from his son who lives in Custar.

- trees down
- power out
- his shed lifted and dropped onto his car

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:33:19 am     #  

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • TORNADO WARNING FOR...
    CENTRAL LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    NORTHWESTERN SANDUSKY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    NORTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
  • UNTIL 130 AM EDT
  • AT 1230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
    STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRYSBURG...OR 9 MILES
    NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
  • LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    ELMORE...PORT CLINTON...NORTHWOOD...WOODVILLE...GENOA...OREGON...
    OAK HARBOR...PUT-IN-BAY...WALBRIDGE...MILLBURY...CLAY CENTER...
    WILLISTON...ROCKY RIDGE...BONO...RENO BEACH...CATAWBA ISLAND AND
    MARBLEHEAD.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:33:38 am     #  

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:35:33 am     #  

The pink line that is drawn on there is the path of the rotation for the last 45 minutes.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:38:02 am     #  

Main threat area is going to be NE of Waterville moving over Maumee and Perrysburg, pretty much right down the river into South Toledo, the Zoo area, into Rossford.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:43:49 am     #  

Wow! It's a deluge of rain in west Toledo. Holy crap.

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:45:59 am     #  

Appears anywhere west of US 23 is good from the tornado threat right now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:49:11 am     #  

Area near Fremont could see a quick spin up.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:54:04 am     #  

Had an area of strong rotation earlier from 12:21 AM near Berkley-Southern and US 24, picked up over Waterville at 12:29 AM continued NE to the Maumee-Perrysburg bridge at 12:38 AM and then it weakened. So might see some damage in that path.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:57:22 am     #  

Areas west of I-75 are good now. Seeing some enhanced wind near Northwood and also at the lake shore near Harbor View.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:59:09 am     #  

Bulk of the comma head is off shore now, so its up for the fish to deal with now. :)

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 01:01:54 am     #  

The same line of storms and how it abruptly changed over a two-hour period.

10:45 p.m. radar image June 12, 2013


12:46 a.m. radar image June 13, 2013

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 01:15:12 am     #  

welp I guess there's the derecho finally.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 13, 2013 at 01:20:49 am     #  

I checked our rain gauge at 1:15 a.m. It showed 1.20 inches of rain. The bulk of that rain fell between 12:30 and 1:00 a.m. Between 12:43 and 12:50 a.m., torrential rain fell.

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 01:22:26 am     #  

I did pick up the red/green signatures on KCLE storm relative velocity as it passed through. hearing reports of poles and trees down in various areas and flooding in parts of perrysburg

posted by anonymouscoward on Jun 13, 2013 at 01:24:35 am     #  

We had lots of rain and lightning in the Point, but not a lot of wind - thankfully because the house behind us has 5 dead trees that have all our power lines running through them.

Again - thanks for all the updates!

posted by MaggieThurber on Jun 13, 2013 at 07:03:10 am     #  

I didn't think we had a lot of wind in west Toledo but when I left for work today, I noticed the neighbors down the street had part of a tree on top of a car parked out front. We did have a lot of lightning last night, but I don't recall hearing any close hits.

I would also like to thank you guys for all the updates. When justasooner posted the bit about the cell in Bryan splitting and the southerly one being a higher risk for rotation... and then at least 10 minutes later, local news said the same thing, we turned on Netflix and just kept refreshing this thread. Thanks for the accurate and timely info. Much appreciated!!

posted by valbee on Jun 13, 2013 at 07:54:21 am     #   1 person liked this

Yeah, what valbee said. Thank you.

posted by holland on Jun 13, 2013 at 08:37:22 am     #  

I love these weather threads. I'll admit, I don't always know what you're talking about (PDS? Derecho?) but I do appreciate the info.

posted by Anniecski on Jun 13, 2013 at 09:19:48 am     #   1 person liked this

Anniecski posted at 09:19:48 AM on Jun 13, 2013:

I love these weather threads. I'll admit, I don't always know what you're talking about (PDS? Derecho?) but I do appreciate the info.

Thanks for the feedback. I was watching 13's and 11's coverage last night online and was just disgusted how sloppy it was...especially from "degreed" meteorologists. I'm going to work on getting my WeatherSpotlight blog updated to have full resources for the area up there.

I had to laugh at 13 going to a live stream from a "storm chaser" reporting low clouds in an area well behind the storm. Reminded me of the circus that was Blizzard Bill's storm chase van from when he was at 24.

If you ever have questions about any of the terminology just ask. The more you understand the better in my opinion since you can cut through the fluff that tends to accompany weather coverage up there. I also tend to forget that down here much of the general public has been exposed to the more descriptive terms on TV that I start throwing them out without putting in a description.

As far as those two...

PDS = Particularly Dangerous Situation. It is the highest level of a watch box and they are very rare. They will only be issued when conditions are in place for a widespread, high end event. Sometimes they do bust but that is because high end situations are extremely volatile and if one ingredient is off it can keep things from happening.

Derecho = Large, long track damaging wind event. The massive bow echo that we saw develop last night is what they normally look like. We had a many wind damage reports come out of it, but I wouldn't call yesterday's an extreme event. However, you still can experience winds well over 70 mph for several minutes in them. In fact there was a stout one we had down here about 7 years ago now that was 100 miles long with 60-70 mph along the whole thing. What pushed it over the edge is we then had notches in the bow that produced winds well over 100 mph. At that point you are talking EF0 to low end EF2 damage just because those winds can last for minutes instead of just a few seconds like in a typical tornado.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 11:12:55 am     #   1 person liked this

JustaSooner posted at 08:57:52 PM on Jun 12, 2013:
hunkytownsausage posted at 08:56:15 PM on Jun 12, 2013:

Sooner and jr, thanks for the updates. This is the first place I check anymore. WTOL11 is reaching the point of being annoying and ridiculous.

What? Don't care for Certified Stamped Written Publish Most Best Top of the Line Awesomest Accurate Right Correct? :) Don't even get me starting and their imitation radar beams that are just for show.

Certified most arrogant!

posted by Linecrosser on Jun 13, 2013 at 11:46:20 am     #  

http://weather.gov/glossary


A common acronym used in weather statements regarding thunderstorms is MCS.

Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more.


Here's a good idea, but it's not working at the moment.

View the Area Forecast Discussion for the Toledo area.

On that discussion page, note how some terms are links to a glossary. Problem is, at least for me, those links don't work. I think they are using the wrong URL.

Example from the discussion page:

.MARINE...
UPDATED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AVON POINT WEST IMMEDIATELY.


The broken URL being used is this:
http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY

But this URL works:
http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=SMALL+CRAFT+ADVISORY


The statements produced by the National Weather Service are always in all-caps. It's hard to read. I convert the text to lower case by using http://convertcase.net

Does a technical reason exist for the NWS to use all-caps? It is because of all the acronyms and proper nouns for locations? Is it a leftover function from the old teletype days?


I assume that one role of the media is to take the technical information from the NWS and make it digestible for the public. The media is the middleman.

The weather information disseminated by the media is too simplistic for me.

I like reading the convective outlooks and mesoscale discussions produced by the Storm Prediction Center and the area forecast discussions produced by the Cleveland National Weather Service.

But sometimes, the information produced by the NWS can be too technical, complicated, and verbose for me.

The NWS should not change their tactics, except for that all-caps thing. I would prefer to have too much technical information than a small amount of simple information.

What's needed is a happy medium, and that's what JustaSooner provides. Valuable, technical, and interesting information that's explained well enough to be understood.

Some methods to inform the public can be implemented with a computer program running in the background, but a human interpreter is tough to replace.


I would like:

  • weather Web app not a native app
  • minimal and simply implemented
  • responsive design to function well on all screens
  • no silly-ass images or icons.
    • if the forecast text says "mostly sunny" then I don't need an image of a sun.
    • the icons waste space
    • if a person does not have the time to read the text, and therefore needs cute icons, then this app is not intended for that person.
  • 36-hour forecast
  • Extended forecast
  • weather radar images
  • satellite cloud cover image
  • current weather conditions at area airports
  • area forecast discussion
  • hazardous outlook statements
  • map of watches, warnings, advisories, and special statements
  • local storm reports
  • maybe radar image of estimated rainfall
  • SPC info:
    • mesoscale discussions
    • watch box info
    • convective outlooks
  • alerts

Does a Web or native app exist like that?

Much of the information can be culled from using the XML feeds produced by the NWS, but of course, the information will be technical, but that's okay.

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 12:12:10 pm     #   1 person liked this

Thank you. The weather radio woke us up, the sirens (and the strange guy in the sky voice) kept me awake, and this thread told me the facts. It was reassuring to watch things unfold from a position of knowledge rather than drama and fear. Again, thank you!

posted by LetItBe on Jun 13, 2013 at 09:10:52 pm     #  

jr posted at 12:12:10 PM on Jun 13, 2013:

http://weather.gov/glossary


A common acronym used in weather statements regarding thunderstorms is MCS.

Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more.


Here's a good idea, but it's not working at the moment.

View the Area Forecast Discussion for the Toledo area.

On that discussion page, note how some terms are links to a glossary. Problem is, at least for me, those links don't work. I think they are using the wrong URL.

Example from the discussion page:

.MARINE...
UPDATED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AVON POINT WEST IMMEDIATELY.


The broken URL being used is this:
http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY

But this URL works:
http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=SMALL+CRAFT+ADVISORY


The statements produced by the National Weather Service are always in all-caps. It's hard to read. I convert the text to lower case by using http://convertcase.net

Does a technical reason exist for the NWS to use all-caps? It is because of all the acronyms and proper nouns for locations? Is it a leftover function from the old teletype days?


I assume that one role of the media is to take the technical information from the NWS and make it digestible for the public. The media is the middleman.

The weather information disseminated by the media is too simplistic for me.

I like reading the convective outlooks and mesoscale discussions produced by the Storm Prediction Center and the area forecast discussions produced by the Cleveland National Weather Service.

But sometimes, the information produced by the NWS can be too technical, complicated, and verbose for me.

The NWS should not change their tactics, except for that all-caps thing. I would prefer to have too much technical information than a small amount of simple information.

What's needed is a happy medium, and that's what JustaSooner provides. Valuable, technical, and interesting information that's explained well enough to be understood.

Some methods to inform the public can be implemented with a computer program running in the background, but a human interpreter is tough to replace.


I would like:

  • weather Web app not a native app
  • minimal and simply implemented
  • responsive design to function well on all screens
  • no silly-ass images or icons.
    • if the forecast text says "mostly sunny" then I don't need an image of a sun.
    • the icons waste space
    • if a person does not have the time to read the text, and therefore needs cute icons, then this app is not intended for that person.
  • 36-hour forecast
  • Extended forecast
  • weather radar images
  • satellite cloud cover image
  • current weather conditions at area airports
  • area forecast discussion
  • hazardous outlook statements
  • map of watches, warnings, advisories, and special statements
  • local storm reports
  • maybe radar image of estimated rainfall
  • SPC info:
    • mesoscale discussions
    • watch box info
    • convective outlooks
  • alerts

Does a Web or native app exist like that?

Much of the information can be culled from using the XML feeds produced by the NWS, but of course, the information will be technical, but that's okay.

This is a million dollar idea. Best part is that the content is 98% available freely...just needs to be reduced to a happy medium between overly-technical and "silly ass" (wonderful descriptive phrase, jr).

Any app designers in the audience? Here's your chance. This is the blueprint.

posted by oldhometown on Jun 13, 2013 at 09:20:53 pm     #  

oldhometown posted at 09:20:53 PM on Jun 13, 2013:
jr posted at 12:12:10 PM on Jun 13, 2013:

http://weather.gov/glossary


A common acronym used in weather statements regarding thunderstorms is MCS.

Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more.


Here's a good idea, but it's not working at the moment.

View the Area Forecast Discussion for the Toledo area.

On that discussion page, note how some terms are links to a glossary. Problem is, at least for me, those links don't work. I think they are using the wrong URL.

Example from the discussion page:

.MARINE...
UPDATED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AVON POINT WEST IMMEDIATELY.


The broken URL being used is this:
http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SMALL%20CRAFT%20ADVISORY

But this URL works:
http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=SMALL+CRAFT+ADVISORY


The statements produced by the National Weather Service are always in all-caps. It's hard to read. I convert the text to lower case by using http://convertcase.net

Does a technical reason exist for the NWS to use all-caps? It is because of all the acronyms and proper nouns for locations? Is it a leftover function from the old teletype days?


I assume that one role of the media is to take the technical information from the NWS and make it digestible for the public. The media is the middleman.

The weather information disseminated by the media is too simplistic for me.

I like reading the convective outlooks and mesoscale discussions produced by the Storm Prediction Center and the area forecast discussions produced by the Cleveland National Weather Service.

But sometimes, the information produced by the NWS can be too technical, complicated, and verbose for me.

The NWS should not change their tactics, except for that all-caps thing. I would prefer to have too much technical information than a small amount of simple information.

What's needed is a happy medium, and that's what JustaSooner provides. Valuable, technical, and interesting information that's explained well enough to be understood.

Some methods to inform the public can be implemented with a computer program running in the background, but a human interpreter is tough to replace.


I would like:

  • weather Web app not a native app
  • minimal and simply implemented
  • responsive design to function well on all screens
  • no silly-ass images or icons.
    • if the forecast text says "mostly sunny" then I don't need an image of a sun.
    • the icons waste space
    • if a person does not have the time to read the text, and therefore needs cute icons, then this app is not intended for that person.
  • 36-hour forecast
  • Extended forecast
  • weather radar images
  • satellite cloud cover image
  • current weather conditions at area airports
  • area forecast discussion
  • hazardous outlook statements
  • map of watches, warnings, advisories, and special statements
  • local storm reports
  • maybe radar image of estimated rainfall
  • SPC info:
    • mesoscale discussions
    • watch box info
    • convective outlooks
  • alerts

Does a Web or native app exist like that?

Much of the information can be culled from using the XML feeds produced by the NWS, but of course, the information will be technical, but that's okay.

This is a million dollar idea. Best part is that the content is 98% available freely...just needs to be reduced to a happy medium between overly-technical and "silly ass" (wonderful descriptive phrase, jr).

Any app designers in the audience? Here's your chance. This is the blueprint.

Guess I need to get to work huh? :)

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 09:33:34 pm     #   1 person liked this

NOUS43 KIWX 140053
PNSIWX
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-141300-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 /753 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

...UPDATE ON JUNE 12/13 SEVERE WEATHER DAMAGE SURVEYS...

ALL INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

A COMBINATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WITH MANY AREAS OF ROTATION MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE LATE EVENING OF JUNE 12 AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF JUNE 13. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
NORTHERN INDIANA DISPATCHED TWO DAMAGE SURVEY CREWS TO VARIOUS
PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO DETERMINE THE NATURE AND
EXTENT OF THE STORM DAMAGE. REPORTS FROM THESE TEAMS FOLLOW.

...WABASH /WABASH COUNTY/...

NATURE: STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
TIME: 1047 PM EDT JUNE 12...2013 (ESTIMATED BY RADAR)
LOCATION: NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TOWN OF WABASH
WIND SPEED: ESTIMATED 90 TO 100 MPH WINDS
DESCRIPTION: SEVEN MILE LONG AND 3 MILE WIDE DOWNBURST SWATH ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF WABASH. A GRAIN SILO AND 2 POLE BARNS WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH DEBRIS BLOWN SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE TREE
DAMAGE TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF WABASH.

...TORNADO /VAN WERT COUNTY/...

RATING: EF-0
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 80 YARDS
TIME: 1127 PM EDT JUNE 12...2013
LOCATION: WILLSHIRE OHIO /STATE ROAD 81 AT THE OHIO INDIANA BORDER
TO THE INTERSECTION OF GREEN STREET AND STATE ROAD 49/
DESCRIPTION: AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TOWN OF WILLSHIRE ALONG STATE ROAD 81 NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER
BEFORE TRAVELING DOWN GREEN STREET TO THE INTERSECTION OF GREEN
STREET AND SR 49. ONE WITNESS SAW TORNADO DESCEND IN HIS
YARD...SNAP OFF 2 LARGE TREES AND CONTINUE DOWN THE STREET. OTHER
TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED. ANOTHER WITNESS SAW CONDENSATION VORTICIES
BEING INJECTED INTO THE FUNNEL AS HIS GARAGE WAS ROLLED OFF OF ITS
FOUNDATION. A PORTION OF THE HOUSE ROOF WAS REMOVED AND THROWN
OVER THE NEIGHBORS HOME. SEVERAL WINDOWS WERE ALSO BROKEN.
THIRTEEN TOTAL HOMES RECEIVED DAMAGE. TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND
FOR LESS THAN 3 MINUTES. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 85 MPH.

...HENRY COUNTY TORNADOES...

DAMAGE SURVEY INDICATED SEVERAL BRIEF TORNADOES AMID DOWNBURST
CLUSTERS THROUGHOUT HENRY COUNTY.

TORNADO 1...

RATING: EF-0
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 20 YARDS
TIME: 1159 PM EDT JUNE 12...2013
LOCATION: 1 MILE NORTH OF HAMLER
DESCRIPTION: BARN DESTROYED WITH CONVERGENT PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE SOYBEAN FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN
IN THE AREA AS WELL.

TORNADO 2...

RATING:EF-1
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 30 YARDS
TIME: 1202 AM EDT JUNE 13...2013
LOCATION: 2.3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MALINTA
DESCRIPTION: TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON SOUTH SIDE OF ROAD J BETWEEN
ROADS 7 AND 8 IN HENRY COUNTY WHERE A BARN WAS DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A BARN AND HOUSE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ROAD INCLUDING A BEAM FROM THE BARN SOUTH OF THE ROAD STUCK
INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HOME ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ROAD.

TORNADO 3...

RATING: EF-0
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 15 YARDS
TIME: 1203 AM EDT JUNE 13...2013
LOCATION: 2.7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MALINTA
DESCRIPTION: SMALL WIDTH TORNADO PATH WAS SEEN THROUGH A WHEAT
FIELD. A POLE BARN HAD DOORS COLLAPSED AND ONE WALL BLOWN DOWN.

$$

BENTLEY/OBERGFELL

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 09:45:26 pm     #  

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 13, 2013 at 10:06:21 pm     #  

With the way that the line of storms quickly morphed as it moved into Ohio, and the shape that line assumed, it's amazing that the weather was not a lot worst than it was last night. We're lucky that a key weather ingredient or two were missing from last night's mix. I wonder how close it got to becoming a major disaster for the Toledo area.

The dynamics of the Indiana line of storms dramatically changed. In our area, rotation existed in multiple locations. Storms passed through around or after Midnight while many people slept. An hour or two prior, it appeared that severe weather would miss Metro Toledo, with its population of several hundred thousand people.

"... and the strange guy in the sky voice ..."

That's the second time today that I have "heard" that mentioned about the Wednesday night storms.

Did someone broadcast over a PA system? Law enforcement maybe?

posted by jr on Jun 13, 2013 at 11:20:41 pm     #