I see tons of "for sale" signs, but few, if any SOLD signs. Just wondering how the residential real estate folks are surviving? I listened to the ever-optimistic Real Estate "doctor" Larry Brrrrtalk today on WSPD, and I can't believe things are as peachy as they indicate. I gotta believe the auction houses are having a banner year.
Are any realtors actually selling homes these days?
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What happens if you are a new married couple and both work (120K+/year)? you buy a house! or have to relocate because of your job???
while supply is not in sync with demand at the moment, people are still buying, they are just fewer in numbers and looking for a good deal...won't be like this in a couple years from now :)
W.Anthony, ps...Key Realty has been around for about a decade, but it takes time to build up relationships, especially in a volatile market :)
Residential real estate is starting to pick up a little, but things are still bad. Agents with 30+ years of experience have told me that this is the worst market they have ever seen. If you are first time buyer, the prices are fantastic even if the lending requirements are getting tougher.
Also, Key Realty is a new organization, but the agents have all migrated there from other agencies. Good organization, very professional.
Why are the prices "fantastic", Ace? They will continue to fall. Seems to me you will have to resort to even more outlandish qualifiers to describe prices next year ... then in 2010 ... then in 2011 you're going to need another language since English will run out of fantastic words for you to use.
If you can place amy merit on Jim Cramer's (MSNBC) predictions the nationwide need for housing units will outstrip supply by 800,000 units in the latter part of 2009. Nice if it's ture.
Prices will come back. It may get worse before it gets better, but I think that folks who are willing to stay in their houses for at least 4-6 years will see their investment pay off.
Holland, the vacancy rate in housing continues to rise and is now the highest level ever recorded (since the early 1950s when it started to be recorded). Over 2.3% of for-sale housing (houses, condos) is EMPTY. When you toss in empty apartments and vacation homes, the vacancy rate in housing soars to 13%. THERE ISN'T A SHORTAGE OF HOUSING IN THE UNITED STATES. There is a big glut. Sales rates in too many areas show a 1-2 year supply, assuming that for those 1-2 years, builders STOP building (which they won't).
Cramer is just pumping another speculative industry, as is his job. Of course, the larger view on that is that it's his job to fool the American people into buying assets that he's told to promote, behind the scenes. If you don't believe that, check out Youtube when he howled that people should keep their money in Bear Sterns ... all just a few days before the BS stock crashed and they had to be bailed out at dimes on the dollar. Cramer is corrupt.
Sure, Ace. Prices will come back. That's not the point, however. The point is not to take losses, or live in "paper rich but payment poor" status.
And ... 4-6 years? When they took out ARMs and other stupid mortgage species? Why do you think there are so many foreclosures, old son? People are WALKING AWAY from the bad choice they made, since even if they COULD survive paying such huge mortgage payments, they are only paying for an asset that is decreasing in price, and that means they can't FLIP IT.
As far as investments go, a house barely ticks over, being slightly above the wage inflation rate. That makes a house the WORST long-term investment you can ever make. That's also why a house or condo is a HOME, not an investment. You're supposed to live in the damned thing, not play a stupid financial game with it that exposes you to huge losses (or huge "income pressure" for a good decade).
Finally, it WILL get worse before it gets better. Dropping prices and then stagnating them (as was well documented for Japan from 1990 until today) is a great way to get people to walk away from the banks' homes. Keep aware that interest rates cannot continue to remain so low as they've been criminally held by Greenspan and now Bernanke. Soon enough, they must rise. A rational Federal Reserve should have taken then to double-digits, then held them there for a 2-4 years. Bernanke is only choosing to sink the US dollar in order to aid his banking buddies. So, any way you slice it, the homeDEBTor gets screwed. And that means more foreclosures, and that means lower prices.
I do vivdly recall Cramer's "Keep your money in Bear Stearns" advice. My thought when I heard him make that statement was - Well, folks still won't put their money in real estate. They'll rent to avoid the very real prospect of asset depreciation. Especially if they feel uncertain about maintaing their employment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/a!pps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUKNXKCNLhGA&refer=patrick.net
Home Prices Fall in 23 of 25 U.S. Metropolitan AreasAnyone need a clue as to where pricing will go after this?
Fake money creates fake value and real crashes.
Please keep in mind that residential and commercial loans are made by the same lenders. That means when the commercial loans start crashing (and they WILL), the lenders will grow even more strict with making loans. Strict means in part a higher down payment will be REQUIRED. And a higher down payment will continue to push down the prices for houses and condos.
Prices must fall and stagnate until 2014. If the Congress continues to try to bailout the process of correction, then that benchmark will slip even FURTHER into the future. Ref. Japan, 1990 until now ... since the Japanese government tried to cover ALL the bad property bets. That's 18 YEARS of price drops and stagnation.
It's a vicious cycle. Folks wanting to move up can't sell their existing homes, so they can't buy new homes, so builders aren't building, so they're not hiring carpenters, masons, roofers, etc. With the slowdown in construction, carpenters, masons, roofers, etc., aren't spending money on dining out, entertainment, etc.
The flip side is that high gas prices may finally slow urban sprawl. In that case, those homes closer into the city may actually rise in value.
Of course, it'll be a million years before that happens.
It's not likely that any of us alive today will be around to see houses in the inner City of Toledo appreciate in value.
Houses are selling. I moved to the "burbs" 3 months ago BEFORE selling my Toledo house. I sold it in less than two months and made a profit. Check the property transfers in the friday addition of the Blade. Smart realtors will ask for a preapproval letter upfront.
posted by muddyriverduck on Jul 09, 2008 at 09:11:27 pm #
Housing stock (in months) is largely influenced by neighborhood. Currently the average in the metropolitan Toledo area is 4 months worth of stock. That's truly not too bad in comparison to some other areas of the country.
Appreciation also follows this logic. Certain areas are still appreciating, but at a much slower rate than in the past. Where some areas were holding a solid 4%/yr in appreciation they are only seeing .5-1%/yr now. But at least that's still going up and not into the negatives.
Muddyriverduck says: Smart realtors will ask for a preapproval letter upfront.
You're absolutely right - and many of us do. Won't do business without it.
Personally, I have already closed more sales this year than I did for the entire year of 2007. The market is viable - if you are practical in your purchases.
posted by DoknowDocare on Jul 14, 2008 at 05:37:19 pm #
July 15, 2005 Toledo Talk thread titled Real Estate Bubble?
Interesting subject. I'd also like to hear how things are going out there for real estate agents.
I noticed some new real estate signs around town, for "Key Realty." Anybody know anything about them ? Who's the owner or owners ?
I've seen several "Key Realty" signs in Rossford.
posted by WalterAnthony on Jul 06, 2008 at 09:48:32 pm #