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Toledo Talk   (musing about Lake Erie West and beyond)
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Two different views on Toledo's job market

A couple of stories from earlier this month.

Sep 11, 2007 Toledo Blade story :

Metro Toledo ranks among the best cities in the state in terms of hiring for the October through December period in a new survey. Adding workers is expected by 37 percent of area firms and cutting payroll is planned by 3 percent of companies in the fourth quarter of the year. The survey shows Toledo better than or equal to the hiring plans in 16 other metro areas in Ohio.

I believe metro Toledo includes the counties of Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, and Fulton.


Sep 10, 2007 bizjournals story titled Where the hottest job markets are. Toledo is in the coldest 10.

There is a geographical sameness to the bottom 10. Three lagging markets are in Michigan, and four are in next-door Ohio.

10 Coldest Job Markets

  1. Detroit
  2. New Orleans
  3. Youngstown
  4. Dayton
  5. Cleveland
  6. Lansing
  7. Toledo
  8. Springfield, MA
  9. New Haven, CT
  10. Grand Rapids, MI

About Toledo from the article:

Unemployment is spiking upward in Toledo -- from 5.9 percent a year ago to 6.6 percent by the middle of 2007. The latter is the fifth-worst jobless rate in any major market. The number of jobs in Toledo is slowly trending in the opposite direction -- down 700 in the past 12 months.

Quick stats

  • Private-sector jobs as of mid-2007: 286,300
  • Unemployment rate as of mid-2007: 6.6%
  • Private-sector trend since mid-2002: Lost 900 jobs
  • Five-year growth rate: -0.3%
  • Private-sector trend since mid-2006: Lost 700 jobs
  • One-year growth rate: -0.2%


Sep 21, 2007 mlive.com story :

LANSING -- The Democrat-led state House continues to get tangled up in tax debates as it tries to resolve a projected budget crisis for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. The House was again voting early today on a proposal to increase the personal income tax rate from the current 3.9 percent to 4.6 percent. The proposal could raise about $1.1 billion for the state next fiscal year, leaving more than $600 million of a potential deficit to be eliminated by cuts or other revenue sources.

All this week, Gov. Jennifer Granholm has showcased what the income tax funds in the budget -- public safety, health care and education. She said the tax hike was critical to protecting vulnerable citizens and to "save the state" from a government shutdown when the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1.

Feb 2007 Toledo Talk posting - Stats on Ohio's taxes and small business environment

State Taxes This is a ranking where it's best to be near the bottom. Ohio, unfortunately, is near the top for the amount of taxes its citizens pay.


Other Toledo Talk postings:


Back to the Sep 2007 bizjournals story:

The study's objective was to determine the relative strength of the nation's 100 largest labor markets, based on short- and long-term employment trends. Bizjournals rated each labor market in the nine categories below:
  1. Five-year job growth by percentage (2002-07)
  2. Four-year job growth by percentage (2003-07)
  3. Three-year job growth by percentage (2004-07)
  4. Two-year job growth by percentage (2005-07)
  5. One-year job growth by percentage (2006-07)
  6. Five-year job growth by raw total (2002-07)
  7. One-year job growth by raw total (2006-07)
  8. Unemployment rate (2007)
  9. One-year change in unemployment rate (2006-07)


Unemployment rate (June 2007)


10 Hottest Job Markets

  1. Phoenix
  2. Salt Lake City
  3. Boise
  4. Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
  5. Houston
  6. Dallas-Fort Worth
  7. Las Vegas
  8. Austin
  9. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
  10. Tuscon

For most on that Top 10, "hot" also applies to their weather. I suppose you get used to it, but I prefer cool weather. I'd like to move further north in order to be around more snow. Maybe someone can propose outlawing air conditioning as means to save the environment, and then people and jobs will move back north.

created by jr on Sep 21, 2007 at 09:11:41 am
updated by jr on Sep 21, 2007 at 10:15:59 am
    Comments: 13

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Comments ... #

I find it kinda funny yet sad, that Detroit is #1 as the coldest job markets, while New Orleans is #2. At least I can understand NO it's a disaster area, literally building the city back up from the ground. To beat that is just sad.

posted by jshriver on Sep 21, 2007 at 12:00:41 pm     #



It's all in how you look at it - if I were a young guy with tools and the proper construction skills, I'd make a bee line for NO. There's all SORTS of construction jobs there.

posted by billy on Sep 21, 2007 at 12:46:36 pm     #



Just like Barry Bonds will have an asterisk by his name in the record books, New Orleans, too, will have an asterisk by its name in the record books.

I think it's interesting that the first story about Toledo was using other Ohio cities as the standard of judgement while the second used cities around the country. I think this speaks magnitudes about the economy in Ohio in addition to the sad state of affairs here in Toledo.

posted by HeyHey on Sep 21, 2007 at 03:50:24 pm     #



Would Phoenix's status have anything to do with a close proximity to the a cheap supply of labor rising from impoverished countries? In fact, looks like all those cities might be experiencing the same thing.

posted by charlatan on Sep 22, 2007 at 04:23:11 pm     #



The bottom 10 from the Fall 2005 rankings by the Milken Institute shows 9 of the 10 cities are from Ohio or Michigan :

191. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC
192. Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI
193. Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI
194. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH
195. Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, MI
196. Toledo OH
197. Lansing-East Lansing MI
198. Canton-Massillon OH
199. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA
200. Flint MI

And the bottom 10 from the Fall 2007 bizjournals rankings shows 7 of the 10 cities are from Ohio or Michigan :

91 Grand Rapids
92 New Haven, Conn.
93 Springfield, Mass.
94 Toledo, Ohio
95 Lansing, Mich.
96 Cleveland
97 Dayton
98 Youngstown, Ohio
99 New Orleans
100 Detroit

Detroit, Grand Rapids, Cleveland, Toledo, Lansing, and Youngstown are on both lists.

Old steel town Pittsburgh is ranked 141 in the 2005 Milken Institute rankings and 84 in the bizjournals rankings. Nothing to really brag about, but at least that rust belt city is not on the bottom. At some point, these cities can longer blame the problem on the decline of the manufacturing industry. That excuse may have been acceptable 10 to 15 years ago, but not in 2007. These cities have had plenty of time to adapt, and it seems Pittsburgh has done a little something over the past 20+ years to stay out of the bottom 10.

posted by jr on Sep 22, 2007 at 06:14:21 pm     #



Does anyone else find it interesting that so many of those areas that are experiencing job growth were trying to buy water from the Great Lakes not so long ago? Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region is on the opposite end of the job growth scale.

posted by mom2 on Sep 23, 2007 at 11:48:09 am     #



No, Mom2...I said quite some time ago, that our greatest source of economic development in the next 10-15 years was our stategic location and our water...which is why I supported Sylvania's efforts to build a second water intake system. (The feds are trying to restrict anyone from building any new water intakes as part of the no exporting of GL waters.) If we handled it properly, we'd need everything Toledo AND Sylvania would be able to provide to the companys relocating here because of our access to water...

posted by MaggieThurber on Sep 24, 2007 at 08:16:47 am     #



Water is something we take for granted. And if you drink it from the tap, peeps think you're a weirdo.

Recent history is coming full circle.
Toledo was built around it's natural ports and waterways. Detroit was chosen as a fort for it's ease of shooting cannonballs to Canada (and the British).

posted by charlatan on Sep 24, 2007 at 01:35:43 pm     #



Charlatan, I think you might be wrong on your history. Fort Detroit was first a French fort, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Detroit, then a British fort, and then turned over to the Americans. I think it might have been built to protect French trading interests with the Indian tribes, but I am not sure.

posted by oldsendbrdy on Sep 24, 2007 at 04:09:19 pm     #



A new Milken Institute report is available. As mentioned above, two years ago Toledo's economy ranked 196 out 200 major U.S. cities.

Sep 27, 2007 Toledo Blade story :

Metro Toledo ranked fifth-worst among 200 major cities nationally in a job-growth study released yesterday by the Milken Institute, a California think tank, and Greenstreet Partners.

The Milken report, which is a respected study, rated Ocala, Fla., as the best-performing city. Other cities from the Southeast and the Southwest dominated the top U.S. locations, helped by growth in tourism, foreign trade, and transportation sectors.

Most Ohio and Michigan cities were in the bottom third of the list.

The study measured the ability of metropolitan areas to create and sustain jobs, examined one-year and five-year measures of job and salary growth, and assessed technology jobs. Weight was given to high-technology job creation, because those tend to pay the most.

Around here, the sun is producing some local high tech job opportunities.

More from the Blade story:

Metro Toledo ranked poorly in several categories used to determine performance. It was No. 185 out of 200 over the last five years in job growth, No. 173 in job growth over the last year, and No. 179 over five years in wage growth. Unemployment in Lucas County was 6.1 percent last month, down from 6.8 percent a year ago. The metro area, which includes Lucas, Wood, Fulton, and Ottawa counties, had nearly 20,000 jobless in August.

The Milken study ranked Toledo No. 190 over five years in output from high-tech industries and No. 198 in high-tech workers. But there was a ray of hope: The area was 63rd in high-tech industry output in 2006, presumably benefitting in part by First Solar Inc., a solar-panel maker in Perrysburg whose production increased last year.

Area officials said last week they are trying to compete better for tens of millions of dollars in technology-development money issued through Ohio's Third Frontier program. Northwest Ohio has fared poorly in landing grants in the program's first five years.


Third Frontier - I'll admit to not knowing the details of Third Frontier today or knowing its entire life history, but it has been mentioned at Toledo Talk in the past.

From a story in an April 2007 Toledo Talk posting :

Gov. Bob Taft launched his Third Frontier high-tech initiative in 2002, only to need two tries to secure the bond money to pay for it.

From an April 2006 Toledo Talk posting

The Third Frontier Commission awarded the grants through a competitive RFP evaluation process in which proposals from 17 different entities were reviewed and scored by Taratec Corporation. University of Toledo (UT), located in Toledo (Lucas County), was awarded $1,000,000 for its “Test Facility for Experimental Development of High-speed Rotating Components and Subsystems.” This facility will be dedicated to the experimental development of advanced, high speed (up to 150,000 rpm) rotating equipment. UT’s collaborator, Teledyne Continental Motors – Turbine Engines (TCM-TE) plans to use the facility to test bearings and compressors. TCM-TE expects initial sales of newly developed turbine engines to be $3.25 million with 10 to 20 new jobs created.

But ...

November 5, 2003, day after the election, Blade story titled Issue No. 1: Ohio defeats amendment to bolster high-tech projects

A year after re-electing Gov. Bob Taft, voters yesterday rejected his plea to approve a constitutional amendment that would have allowed the state to issue up to $500 million in bonds to help finance high-tech projects.

The Republican governor had said Issue 1 was the final pillar in a $1.6 billion, 10-year program that he said is a "matter of our economic survival as a state." He referred to the program as the "Third Frontier," but some TV ads touting the bond issue showed manufacturing scenes that some voters said confused them about whether it was a high-tech initiative.

Issue 1 was ahead by wide margins in Cuyahoga and Montgomery counties, but voters were rejecting it in Franklin, Hamilton, and Lucas counties and in rural counties that are Republican strongholds.

November 3, 2005 Toledo Blade article which contains the Blade's endorsements or voting commands:

Here is a summary of The Blade’s editorial endorsements in key local and statewide election contests in tomorrow’s election:

STATE ISSUE 1

NO: We have grave misgivings about this constitutional amendment and believe it should be defeated. It would authorize the state to borrow $500 million for grants to high-tech enterprises, but it includes no provision for spreading any jobs that might be created to all parts of Ohio.

In 2003, Lucas County voted against the high-tech initiative that Lucas County officials today are trying to get better access to.

A different version of this initiative came up for a vote in 2005. I guess that one must have passed. The problem with the 2005 version, however, was that it was really two separate issues combined as one. Here's what the 2005 issue said :

Two-thirds of Issue 1 funds will be used by local governments — not the state — for building infrastructure like roads, bridges, water supplies and storm and sanitary sewers. Issue 1 will create new jobs for Ohio’s future by making $500 million in grants for technology research and development.

My Nov 1, 2005 comment about that version of Issue 1:

Yep, it should have been two separate issues. Looks like the Issue 1 supporters are trying to pull a fast one on the public. See, the rub here is, if you oppose Issue 1 because of the money going to high-tech research, then someone can come back at you and say, "Oh, so you're opposed to fixing roads and bridges in small towns."

No, that's not true. A person opposes Issue 1 in 2005 for the same reason he or she opposed it in 2003: Money would not be fairly distributed to all parts of the state. By adding infrastructure support to the 2005 version, which is important to all areas of the state, the Issue 1 crowd is hoping the slick repackaging will get it passed by the voters.

It could be that Third Frontier hight-tech money goes primarily to Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, and maybe that's why the Blade said vote NO on Issue 1 in 2003.

Carty wants the governor to locate an energy research center here. Toledo wants money from the state to help finish work on the MLK bridge. The new I-280 bridge just opened this summer. That bridge cost $220 million. I wonder if Columbus is holding this new bridge over Toledo and saying, "You got a $220 million bridge. What more do you want?"

posted by jr on Sep 27, 2007 at 11:25:49 am     #



Allan Block, chairman of Block Communications Inc., parent company of The Blade, says Toledo should model its economic rebound after Singapore, Dubai, and China.

Doesn't Singapore allow foreigners to become citizens of Singapore only if they have a college a degree? If true, then Toledo should enact something similar. No one is allowed to move into Toledo unless he or she has a college degree.

posted by jr on Sep 28, 2007 at 02:30:27 pm     #



JR, does that leave out Bill Gates? I think he quit college to go on to found Microsoft. Although as a betting man I would put odds on those with a college education, there will always be those who confound the prognosticators.

posted by oldsendbrdy on Sep 28, 2007 at 03:32:45 pm     #



If we adopt Singapore's economic strategy like Allan suggests, and if Bill Gates or the Facebook founder want to move into Toledo, then yes, they will denied the right to move into Toledo because we will perceive them as not being productive to society because they don't have a college degree.

posted by jr on Sep 28, 2007 at 04:20:36 pm     #