Possible New Year's Eve/Day snowstorm

11:19 a.m. Dec 31, 2007 : Winter Storm Watch in effect from 7:00 p.m. this evening through Tuesday morning.

9:29 p.m. Dec 31, 2007 : Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7:00 p.m. Monday to 11:00 a.m. Tuesday.

Dec 31, 2007 :

Snowfall predictions for the Toledo area made on Monday morning, Dec 31, 2007 :
- National Weather Service : 6 to 8 inches by Tuesday morning.
- AccuWeather : 4 to 9 inches (specific forecast of 5 1/2 inches) by Tuesday evening.
Toledo Metcalf Airport conditions at 8:53 a.m. : Partly Cloudy [sunny], 27 F, S-SE 5 mph. A pleasant, winter morning. No snow on the ground except for the light dusting from yesterday afternoon's snow flurries. Tomorrow, however, could be good for cross-country skiing at our area parks.
As of 11:19 a.m., the NWS snowfall prediction into Tue morning is 5-8 inches.
Toledo Metcalf Airport conditions at 11:53 a.m. : Overcast, 36 F, S-SW 13 mph.
As of 2:44 p.m., the NWS predicts 5 to 8 inches of snow by midday Tuesday. Some rain may mix with the snow tonight, decreasing the total snow amount.
It appears that the main part of the snowstorm will occur in southeast Michigan.
- 2:31 p.m. Dec 31 NWS statement for Detroit area: The heaviest snowfall will occur roughly from along I-69 southward to I-94 where 8 to 10 inches of accumulation is anticipated. Local accumulations up to 12 inches are possible, especially over Livingston and Shiawassee counties.
The Monday afternoon forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow tonight and another 1 to 3 inches possible on Tuesday. Rain seems likely for a while tonight too. I think Toledo will be dodging this one for the most part. Tuesday afternoon will probably be the worst of it with stronger winds and colder temperatures.

Jan 1, 2008 :

Toledo Express Airport condition at 12:52 a.m. : Light rain and fog/mist, 34 F, SE 6 mph.
Toledo Metcalf Airport conditions at 12:53 a.m. : Light rain, 39 F, S 14 mph.
34 degrees and light rain at 12:55 a.m. in West Toledo.
Temperatures rose two to three degrees between Midnight and 1:00 a.m. Before the rain began, whenever that was, we received around one inch of snow. Now it's a slushy mess outside.
Forecast at 1:00 a.m. still says 2 to 5 inches of snow overnight. It's a safe bet Toledo will be closer to the two-inch number. Radar indicates we will switch back to snow before daybreak, and we may get some moderate to heavy snow showers at times around or after sunrise. We'll probably get a few inches of snow by Noon.
At 11:00 a.m., the "snow depth" is not much different than it was yesterday morning. The dusting is only slightly deeper than yesterday morning. I'm not sure it even snowed anymore after we started getting rain around Midnight. Whoa, did the weather people miss this one for the Toledo area. It's funny how the National Weather Service does not issue a public statement explaining what happened and why their forecast was so way off. Maybe they issued something early this morning, and I missed it.
Michigan NWS statement issued at 7:41 a.m. lists snowfall amounts for areas around Detroit:

The following snowfall reports were received between 6am and 7am this morning. Between 12 and 15 inches of snow fell in a swath across northern Livingston and northern Oakland counties... making this the most snow to fall on New Years Day in decades. Heavy snow fell steadily at a rate of 2 inches per hour with rates approaching 4 inches per hour at times. Over 12 inches of snow fell in less than 7 hours between the M59 and I69 corridors early this morning!

New snowfall reports

location - snow (hrs) - total depth

... Livingston...
Brighton 12.0 7.5

... Oakland...
5 north of Clarkston 15.0 7
Clarkston 14.3 7
Oxford 12.0 7
White Lake 11.8 7
Milford 11.0 7.5
Novi 9.0 7.5
Huntington Woods 9.0 8

... Genesee...
Flint 7.6 8
Linden 7.5 7.5

... St Clair...
Yale 10.0 7

... Washtenaw...
Ann Arbor 10.5 8

... Sanilac...
Port Sanilac 7.5 7

... Shiawassee...
Corunna 5.0 8

... Wayne...
Plymouth 7.0 8
Canton 7.0 8
Northville 7.0 8
downtown Detroit 4.0 8

... Lenawee...
Tecumseh 3.0 9

... Macomb...
Armada 8.0 7
Fraser 3.0 7

... Tuscola...
Vassar 3.5 7

Latest Statement

National Weather Statement as of 11:00 a.m. Jan 1, 2008

????? Nothing.

No explanation why a forecast 24 hours ago of 6 to 8 inches of snow by now turns out to be less than an inch of actual snow depth. Ahh, meteorology is an inexact science. But the government agency should at least explain to the general audience what happened even if the explanation is technical. We can handle it. Government openness? What was I thinking?

It's the "cry wolf" scenario. When the weather outcome continues to be a lot less significant than the original forecast, people will pay less attention to winter weather forecasts in the future. This is the third weather event this season that has not come close to the original forecast.

Here's info from a National Weather Service statement issued last night at 9:29 p.m. :

Total snowfall by midday Tuesday is expected to range from 4 to 8 inches. Winds are expected to increase on Tuesday to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph and this should cause blowing and drifting of the snow making travel even more difficult. Travelers venturing out tonight and Tuesday for the new years eve and New Years Day festivities should monitor the latest forecasts for possible adjustments to the forecast.

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is expected. Heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving conditions. If you will be traveling in the warning area you should choose an alternate Route if possible, or you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations for further details or updates.

People hear forecasts of heavy snow and blowing snow and a few may change their travel plans. But when reality sets in and the "storm" turns out to be nothing, then I think the public at least deserves a scientific explanation as to why the forecast was way off, especially if the government wants people to pay attention to their forecasts in the future.

Predicting snowfall amounts is tough for areas that will be on the rain-snow border like we were for this storm. A little shift in the storm track can cause a significant difference in snow amounts. Fine. Then explain that to the public, so people can understand snow storm forecasting a little more.

It should come as no shock that the National Weather Service does not keep an archive of all their weather statements. Each statement does not contain its own, unique permalink. This is probably done so the NWS cannot be held accountable.

Most or at least some of us know weather forecasting is not an exact science, but nerdy taxpayers at least deserve a detailed explanation as to what transpired over the past 24 hours. But that would require a government worker to do more than what's described on his or her job description. Assembling the info to produce such a statement could interfere with their break times.

I bet all the National Weather Service did was issue a terse statement early this morning saying the Winter Storm Warning was canceled with no additional information. Morons.

Latest Forecasts

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National Weather Service

National Weather Service forecast as of 11:01 a.m. Tue, Jan 1, 2008 :

This Afternoon: Snow showers likely this afternoon. Snow accumulation of around one inch. Blustery with temperature falling into the upper 20s this afternoon. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tonight: Snow showers likely. Additional snow accumulation around an inch. Lows around 20. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

NWS msg 3:14am Dec 31

National Weather Service statement at 3:14 a.m. Dec 31, 2007 :

Winter storm headed toward the area. Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning.

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning. Snow is expected to move into the region late this afternoon into the evening hours. At this time... the precipitation is expected to remain all snow across the area.

There is the possibility for 6 to 8 inches of snow tonight into Tuesday morning as the storm system moves through the region. There is the possibility that the snow could be heavy at times this evening. Winds are expected to increase this evening to 10 to 20 mph and this could cause blowing and drifting of the snow making travel difficult.

Travelers venturing out this evening for the new years eve festivities should monitor the latest forecasts for possible winter storm warnings that could be issued later today.

A Winter Storm Watch means that heavy snow is possible. If you are within the watch area... remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards radio or your favorite weather source for the latest updates and possible warnings.

NWS msg 11:19am Dec 31

National Weather Service statement at 11:19 a.m. Dec 31, 2007 :

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday morning.

Snow is expected to move into the region this evening. At this time... the precipitation is expected to remain mostly snow across the area.

There is the possibility for 5 to 8 inches of snow tonight into Tuesday morning as the storm system moves through the region. There is the possibility that the snow could be heavy at times.

Winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph Tuesday and this could cause blowing and drifting of the snow making travel difficult.

NWS msg 2:44pm Dec 31

National Weather Service statement at 2:44 p.m. Dec 31, 2007 :

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 11 am EST Tuesday.

Snow is expected to develop across the region this evening and continue through Tuesday morning until tapering to flurries or snow showers.

Total snowfall by midday Tuesday is expected to range from 5 to 8 inches. There is the possibility that the snow could be heavy at times. Some rain may mix in with the snow tonight which could end up decreasing the snow accumulation a little.

Winds are expected to increase on Tuesday to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph and this should cause blowing and drifting of the snow making travel even more difficult.

Travelers venturing out tonight and Tuesday for the new years eve and New Years Day festivities should monitor the latest forecasts for possible adjustments to the forecast.

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is expected. Heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving conditions. If you will be traveling in the warning area you should choose an alternate Route if possible, or you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations for further details or updates.

NWS msg 9:29pm Dec 31

National Weather Service statement at 9:29 p.m. Dec 31, 2007 :

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 11 am EST Tuesday.

Snow overnight may mix with or rain for a time and tapering to flurries or snow showers Tuesday.

Total snowfall by midday Tuesday is expected to range from 4 to 8 inches. There is the possibility that the snow could be heavy at times. Some rain may mix in with the snow overnight which could end up decreasing the snow accumulation a little.

Winds are expected to increase on Tuesday to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph and this should cause blowing and drifting of the snow making travel even more difficult.